Restrukturyzacja przedsiębiorstw w dobie pandemii COVID-19

Debt Alert Q2 & Q3 2023 - Key statistics and facts to support C-suit level in understanding what is going on around debt markets

Inside we discuss and present: 

• brief Polish macroeconomic situation and outlook and a forecast for the future
• effect of the current monetary and fiscal policies on the interest rates
• outlook for the interest rates
• main events on the Polish debt market
• possible reaction of banks and capital markets to the changing macroeconomic environment.

Quarterly update on what is going on around debt markets with our expert commentary as to current debt and capital markets status and outlook.

Basic macroeconomic data and forecast (in cooperation with EY Chief Economist - Marek Rozkrut).

Data on key commodities prices impacting wider economy (in cooperation with Consulting Energy Team).

Data on debt and capital markets:

• Interest rates status, increases, including swap rates
• Key loan transactions
• Key bond transactions
• Other important trends – e.g. green financing instruments & volumes.

Summary

In the first quarter of 2023, Poland experienced a peak of CPI inflation, reaching approximately 17.5% in February.

Subsequently, inflation is expected to decline for the remainder of the year.

This decline should be accompanied by a decrease in financing costs and a rebound in GDP growth.

If everything goes as planned, the aforementioned developments will be followed by market liberalization in areas where the government has recently intervened, such as energy price caps.

Despite the observed decrease in inflation, stabilization of financing costs, and reduction in energy costs, the levels of these factors remain high. As a result, many corporations continue to face a combination of challenges including:

• High cost of energy, financing, wages etc.
• Reduced demand for products and increase in stock
• ESG-related transformation needs

Furthermore, it is anticipated that banks will tighten their credit policies further, although they will continue to have an appetite for high-quality assets, particularly those that are environmentally friendly (green assets).

Debt Alert Q4 2022 - key statistics and facts to support C-suit level in understanding what is going on around debt markets

General comment for the Polish corporate debt market as of Q4 2022

Decline in GDP growth, historically high energy prices and inflation marked the fourth quarter of 2022 in Poland.

Government implemented inflation shields and capped energy costs, easing the problem for some but making it more difficult for others.

However we may be on the eve of the reversal of those trends, albeit we should not expect return to the low interest rate environment we all enjoyed until late 2021 (3M WIBOR in September 2021 was 0.21%).

Most corporates are facing the mix of the following challenges:

• High cost of energy
• High cost of financing
• Increase in other costs due to increasing inflation
• Reduced demand for products and increase in stock
• Further problems in the supply chain, including due to the war in Ukraine
• ESG-related transformation needs
• Increase in wages costs