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A look ahead: President Donald Trump’s second term

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Learn more about the policy issues Donald Trump will address and how they could impact the business community.


In brief
  • Trump's second term will focus on extending the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, lowering corporate tax rates to 15%, and promoting onshoring to boost the US economy.
  • Trump's "America First" trade policy will prioritize domestic manufacturing, expand tariffs, and target China with import tariffs and trade restrictions.
  • Trump's administration will pursue deregulation in technology, energy, and environmental sectors.

The outcomes of the 2024 US election will significantly change the public policy environment in Washington in the years ahead. Business organizations and governments worldwide are considering how a second Trump administration and new Washington environment will impact them. While his campaign offered a window into the potential policies of Trump’s second term, we can also draw upon his first term’s priorities and actions to provide a more complete picture of the incoming administration.

This publication provides a rundown of how a second Trump administration may shape the economic landscape moving forward in six key issue areas: tax, trade and supply chains, technology, regulatory environment, climate and workforce.

President Donald Trump will need to work with Congress to enact lasting change on many of these issues — he will benefit from Republican control of both chambers for at least the first two years of his term. The GOP controlled Senate will enable a smoother and swifter path to confirmation of Cabinet and other high-level political appointees (where a simple majority is needed) and thus a potentially quick start to implementing his policy agenda.

 

The GOP trifecta also could allow for more sweeping legislative change. Importantly with respect to tax policy, congressional procedures allow for passage by a simple majority in the Senate; so, even in a closely divided Congress, tax legislation is one priority that can advance with Republican control of Congress and the White House, as we saw in 2017. Some suggest the tax reform package, for example, could move within the first few months of the new Congress. Other Republican policy priorities would require some bipartisan cooperation because Republicans will not have the requisite votes.

 

Quick take: Trump’s approach to six key issues

1. Tax:

Expiration of many provisions in Trump’s signature Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) will drive the debate in Congress early on — Trump supports a TCJA extension and an even lower corporate rate for some domestic corporations at 15%. The second Trump administration’s tax policy approach is likely to focus on preserving current rates, further reducing tax rates where possible, promoting onshoring and growing the US economy.

 

2. Trade and supply chains:

Trump’s second-term trade agenda will be driven by an “America First” posture and policy — prioritizing domestic and nearshoring efforts and broadly expanding tariffs.

 

3. Technology:

Tech, particularly artificial intelligence (AI), remains an important policy issue in Washington. Trump’s technology policy will be informed by the pursuit of free speech principles and is likely to be a custom-made approach, departing from President Joe Biden’s approach in many areas and driven by his administration’s interactions with big tech and social media platforms.

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4. Regulatory environment: 

Recent presidents of both parties have increasingly relied on executive powers to make policy, causing pendulum swings in regulation. This trend is expected to continue with Trump’s second term. Recent Supreme Court decisions limiting some regulatory authority will impact Trump’s actions, and though we still expect a new set of regulatory priorities and a “lighter touch” regulatory environment overall, the impact could be uneven depending on the industry.

5. Climate and environment: 

Trump’s second term is likely to mirror his first term on climate and environmental policy — seeking to reverse Biden’s energy initiatives and a focus on increasing domestic energy production from more traditional fuel sources. His expected light-touch regulatory posture is likely to extend to the climate, energy and environmental space.

6. Workforce: 

On labor, immigration, diversity and inclusion, and other workforce issues, Trump will generally seek to halt or undo the Biden administration’s rulemakings and policies, reshape the federal workforce and more closely mirror initiatives and actions of his first administration.

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Conclusion

The public policy landscape in 2025 and beyond is poised for considerable change. Trump’s second-term policy agenda will be expansive and underpinned by strong executive action early on. A GOP trifecta will increase his ability to push for sweeping legislative and other changes. A top priority for Trump will be building his Cabinet and staffing other key positions necessary to run the federal government. The Republican-controlled Senate will enable a smooth confirmation process for Trump’s nominees for his Cabinet-level officials and the more than 1,000 executive branch positions that require Senate confirmation. It should be expected that his incoming administration will be prepared to install appointees more quickly than his first administration.

During the first 100 days of the second Trump administration, we will likely see his top policy priorities emerge through early executive actions highlighting key areas of focus. In the first 100 days of his previous term, he signed 90 wide-ranging executive actions, including approximately 30 executive orders.

As we have seen in recent years with narrowly divided Congresses and general Washington gridlock, the president’s agenda and actions will also be shaped by state governments’ responses and court challenges and decisions. And of course, the economy and broader geopolitical landscape — including the evolving events in Ukraine, the Middle East and potentially other areas — will continue to impact the incoming administration’s agenda in unforeseen ways.

Summary

Trump's second term will focus on extending the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, promoting onshoring, and reducing corporate tax rates. His "America First" trade policy will expand tariffs and target China. Deregulation will be a priority in technology, energy, and environmental sectors, reversing Biden's initiatives and boosting fossil fuel production.

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