2024 US elections: six key issues for cross-border businesses

2024 US elections could reshape cross-border trade and policy. Explore how post-election policies might impact the global economy.

In brief

• The 2024 US elections spotlight pivotal issues for cross-border businesses with potential shifts depending on the election outcomes.
  
• Policy divergences and convergences between the candidates could impact global trade policies, technology regulation, and international tax agreements.
• Election results, congressional shifts, and global tensions will shape US policy impacting cross-border trade and regulation.

Business organizations and governments across the globe are considering how the outcomes of the 2024 US presidential and congressional elections could impact their economies and businesses. The outcomes of the November elections could bring changes to the US policy landscape, impacting foreign policy, cross-border commerce and trade.

There are clear policy differences between the Democratic presidential candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, and the Republican candidate, former President Donald Trump. There also are areas where their views are somewhat aligned. This publication provides a rundown of six key issues that matter for multinational businesses and explores policy areas where Trump and Harris may diverge or converge.

The policies of the next president will also be framed by other factors, such as the composition of the US Congress, ongoing geopolitical tensions and the economy.

4. Regulatory environment: 

Recent presidents have increasingly relied on executive powers to make policy, causing pendulum swings in regulation. We expect this trend to continue, and the outcome of the upcoming election, when combined with recent court decisions, could significantly change the regulatory environment.

5. Climate and environment: 

The Biden-Harris administration has prioritized climate change policies such as rejoining the Paris Agreement and promoting electric vehicles. If Trump is re-elected, many existing policies may be reversed in favor of those that support fossil fuels over renewables.

6. Workforce: 

Harris and Trump each see themselves as a champion of labor and the working class, but they have different approaches to workforce issues, particularly immigration. The next president may need to use executive authority to address immigration challenges — at the border and in terms of legal and undocumented immigration — as Congress continues to struggle to pass new legislation. Expect immigration policy to remain a divisive issue on the campaign trail.

Congress

The makeup of Congress will be a key driver in how and whether the next president achieves his or her agenda. Control in the House and Senate will influence the response to many critical issues, particularly if they are of the same party as the president. This November, control in both chambers is up for grabs. 

If we see a unified government, expect legislation to pass more quickly and overall change to be rapid. Under a divided government, like we have today, the pace of change would more likely be slower. 

Conclusion

As we navigate the 2024 election cycle, there are certainly stark differences between the parties and candidates. However, there are also several areas of alignment where the business community may see a continuation of policy regardless of who the next president may be. While the president’s agenda will be a significant factor, which party controls Congress, state governments’ responses and court decisions will also be important in shaping the contours of the public policy landscape for 2025 and beyond. And, of course, the economy and geopolitical landscape will continue to be important drivers of any president’s agenda.