What happened
The final phase of the US presidential election kicked off with the presidential debate between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris on 10 September, which reportedly drew more than 67 million viewers.
Campaigning is also in full swing for 34 of the 100 seats in the US Senate (upper legislative chamber) and for all 435 seats in the US House of Representatives (lower chamber). Polling shows the presidential race is very tight and that control of Congress will come down to several close races.
What’s next
Key trends and policy issues that are likely to influence the voting decisions of undecided or “persuadable” voters include immigration, reproductive rights, the conflict in the Middle East and voters’ perceptions of the economy.1 The latter will be particularly important as the US economy is in the midst of a gradual economic downshift. The trajectory of US job creation and inflation is uncertain, following the US Federal Reserve’s initial interest rate cut in September.
Polls and political analysts suggest that there are seven key swing states that will likely determine who wins the presidential election: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Many of these states were won in 2020 with small margins, and similarly small margins may determine the outcome again in 2024.
If vote margins are tight – particularly if there is a large share of early vote or absentee ballots that need to be counted – then the final election results may not be known for several days. Delays may occur because US voters do not directly elect the president. Rather, US voters in each state elect designated intermediaries called electors; the body of electors is collectively called the Electoral College, which ultimately certifies the vote in each state. The election officially concludes when Congress counts the electoral votes on 6 January 2025. The next president is required to be inaugurated on 20 January 2025.
While attention is likely to focus on the presidential election, the outcome of the House and Senate elections will determine whether the next president will be able to rely on a Congress controlled by their own party or if they will need to build bipartisan consensus to pass legislation. If there is split control of the government, then a reliance on executive actions is likely.