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How data center demand drives utilities to focus on future value

Data center growth presents opportunities and challenges for utilities. A collaborative approach with developers can enhance project value.


In brief
  • Many utilities are being challenged to tackle the continuing demands of large-scale data center development in their service areas.
  • Challenges extend beyond simply powering data centers and require hosts to develop enhanced approaches to planning, managing and executing multiple projects. 
  • Changing the mindset from supplying power to creating a broader “ecosystem” can deliver new opportunities to enhance growth and create value.

Many experts believe that data centers — now experiencing a building boom to support the growth of artificial intelligence (AI), cloud computing, cryptocurrency mining and more — will account for between 40% to 80% of power demand growth through the year 2030, eventually consuming as much as 18% of the power produced in the US.¹

That dramatic demand curve represents a growth opportunity — and a major challenge — for utilities striving to keep pace. Smart utilities will respond by developing a long-term, collaborative data center strategy, one that derisks the process for all participants and treats collaborative developers as partners rather than as transactional customers.

As data center development continues its evolution — from small-scale sites typically requiring less than 30 megawatts of power to mega-scaler generative AI locations requiring 1 gigawatt and up — developers and utilities need to view project execution risks and value through a shared lens, even if their objectives differ.

Long-term strategies benefit all

Data center development challenges require addressing various questions: the purpose of the proposed data center, location preference, anticipated output, power supply sufficiency and transmission adequacy , planned ramp-up schedule, and the pricing model for power supply delivery and infrastructure development.

 

Outside of the data center itself, fundamental challenges also relate to sourcing power. Slow-moving approvals for new generation or transmission infrastructure, supply chain delays, and actual power supply and transmission construction can lengthen the traditional timeframe for startup by as much as five years.

 

For data center developers, the most crucial factor is speed to power. The need to secure power as quickly as possible makes related issues — like tariffs — secondary considerations. Both developers and utilities benefit from crafting long-term pricing models that recognize relative roles, embedded and emergent risks, market shifts, asset implications, customer benefits and adaptable risk mitigation options and consequences.

 

The short-term contracts favored by data center developers can complicate utilities building infrastructure designed to last 40 years or more. Utilities need to protect themselves against stranded assets that put customers at risk; developers need to find creative ways to support and fund the projects they need to deliver power.

Proper execution requires broad resources

To confirm they are maximizing their resources and protecting existing customers, utilities need to evolve their thinking in several specific areas — moving from a “project” to a “portfolio” approach, embedding a formal project management model into the data center development process and creating a collaborative mindset with developers that transcends core data center stand-up.

These three cornerstones can aid hosts in establishing a firmer footing for execution, increase the visibility and rigor of performance delivery, and enable an expanded relationship with developers that provides mutual benefits to both entities.

Traditionally, large capital projects — for example, those costing more than $1 billion — do not have a strong track record around costs and schedule. The issue is that in many cases, large projects are not well-conceived, and executive management is insufficiently engaged throughout the project lifecycle. That combination often means that execution discipline falls below expected levels, resulting in delays and massive cost overruns.

To avoid this, utilities need to reassess their current delivery models and challenge whether the organization’s experience and capabilities are sufficient in a new era of simultaneous, synchronized and sustained investment.

Modern, enhanced project management models require comprehensive engagement and integration of internal functions across the business to bring critical resources to the effort — including legal, finance and accounting, tax, regulatory, economic development, real estate, risk management, technology, and human resources, along with engineering, construction, distribution, project controls and project management.

As utilities enhance their approaches to fulfillment of data center stand-up, they also need to rethink their long-term positioning with developers — particularly the group of hyper-scalers building the largest and most power-hungry facilities. Utilities need to step back and consider the implications of advancing relationships within the sponsor group — pursuing tangible and intangible value through elevating sponsor-host relationships from transactional to collaborative.

Build an ecosystem – not a project

A “digital hub” enables developers and utilities to enhance a portfolio of data center projects from inception through stand-up and activation. Thinking of future data centers from this perspective introduces a broader value dimension extending beyond activation of a single facility.

Already, multi-facility digital hubs are being built out in stages at concentrated sites and staggered over succeeding years of activation. Adopting this type of approach captures natural economies available — for example, building four 250-megawatt units is less expensive than constructing 10 100-megawatt facilities, leveraging more efficient infrastructure, increased power supply build-out, larger contract vetting, faster delivery of key equipment and higher site productivity.

An ecosystem-based model can become a natural source of value if the developer and utility evolve from enablers of outcomes to sources of value that leverage joint abilities to capture available economies, create additional value to each entity and sustain an overall focus on value throughout the course of an individual project or a portfolio of projects.

A range of value benefits can be derived from a robust ecosystem implemented to enhance what a single data center can produce through its purpose, operation and positioning. For example, an ecosystem can be created with the digital hub at its center, and secondary and tertiary value can flow to financiers, fiber, water and industrial solutions providers, grid providers, municipalities, regulators and customers. Through this ecosystem, meaningful jobs will be created; additional property taxes will be collected; power supply, grid and network utilization will improve; electrification will be expanded; financing costs can be lowered; and regulatory policies can be advanced.

Eight actions for better outcomes

Additional data center growth opportunities exist from requests for service and interconnection not yet contracted, or where utilities have higher uncertainty about request validity or developer capacity to move to a contracting stage in the near term.

As potential data center requests for service backlogs increase and cost and speed to power scale-up, utilities would be wise to focus on eight key actions to elevate their market positioning to effectively execute and benefit from a growing inventory of projects in future years:

  1. Develop a formal programmatic risk evaluation and management model — think like an ex-ante risk manager vs. an ex-post problem solver.
  2. Stress-test and de-risk each discrete element of the data center execution process — think like an integrated enterprise owner vs. a task-based performer.
  3. Establish a schedule of common and tailored fees and charges — think like a recurring service provider vs. an ad hoc performance specialist. 
  4. Create contract structures and tariffs that simplify future contracting and enable risk avoidance — think like a risk steward vs. a contract architect.
  5. Enhance the ability to drive sustained performance across a large portfolio of projects implemented in parallel — think like a portfolio manager vs. a serial executor. 
  6. Embed an integrated portfolio management framework across the enterprise — think like a fully seamless delivery enabler vs. a confederation of functions.
  7. Design data center planning, execution and stand-up activities to drive enhanced economic outcomes — think like a value creator vs. a cost manager. 
  8. Position the enterprise as a value-added teammate to developers — think like an active ecosystem collaborator vs. an arms-length role performer.

Creating more mutually valuable relationships with hyper- and mega-scaler developers — particularly the most active within “The Magnificent Seven” — will position a utility as a partner of choice for the long term and identify a range of future value growth opportunities that could otherwise be lost.


Summary 

The growth in data center development presents significant challenges and opportunities for utilities. To keep pace, utilities need to adopt a long-term, collaborative strategy with developers, focusing on creating an “ecosystem: rather than just supplying power.

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