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On the other hand, inflation is shrinking government’s spending power, rising interest rates are increasing the cost of municipal borrowing and reducing property tax assessments as home prices decline, volatile stock prices are reducing the funded status of pension funds, natural disasters are ever-more-frequent, and on top of all that, the public sector is struggling to fill jobs and regain its pre-pandemic capacity.
Most ARPA fund appropriations must be obligated by the end of 2024, and if the Federal Reserve’s inflation-fighting tactics continue, the recent increase in revenue collections likely will not last. When programs started or sustained with federal funding can no longer be funded and go away, the gap between constituent expectations and fiscal position reality will inevitably create political pressures.
Thankfully, it is not too late to prepare. Now is the time for state and local leaders to fortify their fiscal position and fiscal outlook. Acting during this transition period, while budgets are still healthy, can protect government balance sheets against uncertainty and set the stage for long-term growth.