How lessons learned from the global race can drive EV adoption

We’ve seen in other parts of the world that shortages or supply chain issues in the provision of raw materials can significantly impact battery manufacturing. Compared with ICE vehicles, EV batteries are raw material intensive, requiring nickel, lithium and cobalt in high volumes and constant supply. To achieve a required battery price of $100 per kWh — the key to affordable EVs — the US and Canada need to find strategies to both manage the supply of critical raw materials and control pricing. Predictions in the US indicate a six-fold increase in lithium demand by 2030 on top of price instability that saw increases 10 times in 2022 alone. Add to that a 7% year-on-year increase in the cost of a battery in 2022 to $151/kWh, and models show price parity for EVs and ICEs has slipped two years to 2026, delaying adoption gains. To make this achievable, various initiatives are underway, including $2.8 billion in grants for domestic EV production, an allocation of more than $400 million for critical mineral extraction, and both trade alliances and sustainability policies to encourage and foster resource-protective production. Ultimately, EVs are more affordable to own and operate than ICE vehicles, but these initiatives to speed adoption are necessary for consumers to benefit from savings.

The transition to widespread electrified personal and commercial vehicles will be futile without assuring energy is coming from clean, green and renewable sources. Solar, wind, hydro and geothermal energy production may be scalable options for EV manufactures to increase production and meet demand while reducing carbon footprints. Sustainable power production will also be a crucial determiner in the success of a rapidly expanded charging infrastructure. With estimates of a 20-times required expansion of charging stations nationwide, decarbonizing the energy used at this increased scale will be essential.

More EVs mean considerably more charging stations, but progress will need to accelerate if public charging targets are to be met. By 2035, EV energy needs will equal 10% of the total electricity demand in the US and Canada. More accessible chargers will be critical to adoption success.

The EY study points to an estimated need for 68.9 million chargers across both countries by 2035 compared with only 2.6 million in 2022. That means a systematic addition of chargers growing at a CAGR of 28% for the next 12 years. Challenges will need to be solved, including the availability of, and access to, real estate for charging station build-outs. Permitting complexities and delays will need to be addressed, as well as improved visibility over the grid to enable better and more informed decisions for charge point operators (CPOs). This will require stronger collaboration and communication between CPOs, distribution system operators (DSOs) and public transport operators, as well as the communities into which charging stations are being installed.

Ultimately, much of the century-old US and Canadian power grids need urgent modernization to support the energy transition. In the US alone, 35% of EV charging is expected to come from the workplace by 2035, which is similar to home charging demand. Upgrading to smart grid operations will mean transitioning to an advanced metering infrastructure (AMI), which provides constant consumption monitoring and communication between supplier and consumer. This allows homeowners the ability to make smart choices and help reduce consumption. Distribution automation systems (DAS) include smart switches and advanced control systems, as well as demand response programs, grid management and control systems that together can all bring greater, more automated and optimized distribution of energy at scale across the grid while protecting against outages. Utilities will also need to embrace localized generation models, with microgrids capable of integrating renewable energy sources, as well as both local generation and storage options to enhance grid flexibility and resiliency. And, in the future, vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technology, currently in trial stages, may help manage surges by pulling stored energy from vehicles to the grid during peak events.

As EV adoption accelerates, adopting a digitized platform approach will bring the energy, mobility and buildings ecosystem together to create a better, more seamless experience for consumers adopting EVs. At the macro level, this will produce efficiencies to dynamic load management, balancing energy demand across the grid as consumer demand grows and fluctuates through the day and night. Enhanced route planning by states, provinces and builders, plus third-party intelligent partnerships with retailers and other potential charging venues, will be critical in creating consumer confidence. New EV drivers need to trust that when they leave their home or workplace, they will have the range capacity to get to their destination, just like any ICE vehicle. Apps will play a critical role in consumers being able to make energy payments, find charging stations and manage their energy consumption in a seamless experience.

The transition to electrification will also require newly upskilled and trained workers across the countries. EV manufacturing requires a vastly different skill set than the production of traditional ICE vehicles and parts. To design and roll out the millions of EVs expected on our roads, while meeting mandates and growing consumer acceptance, manufacturers will be required to develop greater training agility. Strategic partnerships with universities, vocational schools and community colleges coupled with industry experts to help design training materials will also be crucial. However, progressing this at the pace required will require government involvement to help set guidelines, encourage action and standardize qualifications.

When everything is considered, it’s important to note the roadmap to successful EV adoption in the United States and Canada is already drafted. It is vital that the entire EV ecosystem understands the next step forward should not be about duplicating other efforts from around the world but rather an intelligent consideration and comprehension of lessons learned. By understanding what has worked, and the essential elements of infrastructure success, we can align government, utilities, manufacturers and community-level players that are all critical to help us reach our destination.