These biases are hidden thought patterns that can greatly influence our individual decision making in all aspects of life; however, they are particularly prominent when it comes to investing, as many investors tend to have one or more behavioral biases that significantly impact their investment decision-making. In this paper, we highlight six behavioral biases that we believe affect the widest investor population — herding, disposition effect, loss aversion, overconfidence bias, home country bias and recency bias — and offer examples of investors’ behavior with each.
Herding
Herding is the tendency for investors to make decisions based on following the crowd or the latest trend rather than making sound investment choices. This behavior leads to investors following a pattern of buying high and selling low as they buy into trends too late and sell out of investments as they spiral downward. Throughout history, flows into equities have consistently been greater when the market is performing well, and flows out of equities have consistently been greater when the market is performing poorly, leading to large pockets of investors getting in too late and selling out in a panic amid or after the crash. For example, flows into equity funds were above $100 billion during almost every 12-month period from 1996 through 1999 (peaking over $300 billion in 1999); however, these inflows quickly became outflows in 2001 as the market plummeted. In a similar fashion, flows into equity funds hovered around $100 billion for each 12-month period from 2004 to 2007, only to reach extreme levels of outflows in 2007-2009, peaking at over $200 billion in outflows.¹
This behavior is arguably the most well-documented behavioral finance bias, yet it seems to be extremely difficult to combat as each of the largest bubbles in history (and their corresponding crashes) were fueled by intensive displays of herding behavior. Even as recently as 2017-2018, following the herd led to many investors experiencing significant and sudden losses by investing in cryptocurrencies as prices skyrocketed at an astounding pace, then came crashing down.
Disposition effect
Disposition effect refers to the tendency for investors to sell stocks that have recently risen in value at a 50% higher rate than stocks that have recently fallen in value. This behavior widely exists across investors who convince themselves that it is better to lock in small gains and ride out losses rather than try to hold on to winners for greater long-term gains. In many cases, the winners that investors sell continue in subsequent months to outperform the losers that they keep.
Repeating this behavior over time has shown a potential effect of -3.4% on investors’ returns.² As a stock rises in value, herding may cause a client who doesn’t own that stock to want to buy it as it climbs in value, while disposition effect may cause a client who owns that stock to want to sell it off. This dynamic is one of the most concrete examples of the tendency for different clients to make different instinctive decisions even following the same movement in the market, creating a particularly difficult problem for advisors to solve.
If investors look at herding and disposition effect together, they should see that investing in financially sound investments (rather than hot trends) and holding on to these investments through good and bad short-term swings should ultimately lead to the highest long-term gains. Overall, clients should avoid any behavior that seems like it will provide quick gains because practicing a buy-and-hold philosophy with a financially sound portfolio has proven time and again to be the more effective long-term investing strategy.
Loss aversion
Another major investor bias is loss aversion, or the tendency for people to feel underwhelmed by gains or positive news and to feel overwhelmed by losses or negative news. There are many publications on the topic of loss aversion, the most prominent being Prospect Theory by Daniel Kahneman, which claims that the pain of losing something is psychologically about twice as powerful as the pleasure of gaining that same thing. In the context of gambling, this loss-averse behavior tends to lead to gamblers not being happy unless they at least double the money they risked losing. This leads to a tendency for gamblers to take unnecessary risks which they wrongly convince themselves will help them avoid losses. Like these gamblers, many investors will make irrational decisions to try to avoid any losses in their portfolios.
The most common example of this behavior occurs when investors park their savings in money market accounts during times of high volatility; 2018 saw the highest level of money market inflows since 2008 and was subsequently the first negative year for the S&P 500 since 2008. However, while loss-averse investors viewed this as a validation of their bias of money market accounts as a safe place to hold their money, when adjusted for inflation, the buying power of funds in a money market account is currently decreasing roughly 2.5% to 3% each year.³ This loss in buying power pales in comparison to the opportunities lost by parking dollars in money market accounts. We will dive further into the specific effects on investor returns later, but by moving money out of the market and into money market accounts, investors are essentially deciding to decrease the buying power of their money while missing out on some of the biggest positive swings in the market. Following this behavior, the loss-averse investor ironically behaves in a manner more prone to avoiding gains than losses.
Overconfidence bias
Overconfidence bias, commonly displayed by aggressive investors, is the tendency to overestimate abilities and knowledge, leading to uninformed decisions regarding investments. According to the US Financial Capability Report, many individuals who view themselves as highly capable in terms of financial literacy struggle with many basic budgeting task.