Rising cost of debt could cost UK Plc £25bn

• Latest analysis from EY reveals the cost of debt has increased, on average, by 3 to 6 percentage points, potentially costing UK Plc an additional £25bn in refinancing by 2027
• A challenging macro environment and higher cost of capital could lead to a valuation gap for many listed companies

The rising cost of borrowing could result in a £20 to £25bn refinancing burden for UK Plc in the next three years, according to latest projections from EY.

The analysis has found that the cost of debt financing has increased, on average, by 3 to 6 percentage points since January 2022. Based on the projections, between 2024 and 2027, £500bn of private and corporate debt will need to be refinanced by UK listed companies, costing an additional £20-25bn in annual debt service costs. In 2024 alone, it is projected that over £100bn will need to be refinanced.  

Luke Reeve, Partner and Head of Debt Advisory at EY, said: “The post-pandemic surge in inflation, followed by rapid tightening of interest rates, has led to economic stagnation since late 2021. While rates are easing, the markets anticipate the cost of debt will be between 3 and 6 percentage points higher for the average company or even greater for more leveraged businesses, compared to only two years ago. This will require adjustment in capital structures and equity valuations which will affect all UK based companies and will be untenable for some.”

The analysis also warns there could be a significant valuation gap, as softening demand and a higher cost of capital impacts the underlying value of a business. The divergence between investor value and real market value has the potential to weaken company and asset valuations, affecting both reporting and exit considerations.   

Mats Persson, Partner at EY-Parthenon, said: “As the UK emerged from the pandemic, there was optimism around the long-term economic outlook fuelled by a rebound in GDP and a buoyant deals market where finance was, in many cases, raised on expectations of continued economic growth and stable price levels. However, a combination of higher financing costs, challenging trading conditions and discount rates means a valuation gap is now emerging. 

“Whilst inflation is easing, companies should avoid relying on interest rates coming down quickly, particularly as ongoing geopolitical disruption and policy uncertainty due to elections in over 60 countries this year including the US, could lead to inflation and interest rate scenarios which are not fully priced in by markets. 

“To protect their balance sheets, companies should be looking for opportunities to deleverage ahead of refinancing events and explore strategies to improve liquidity and access to working capital. It’s also critical that companies continually conduct stress tests and scenario plan to understand the resilience of their business and develop a strategy to mitigate risks.”