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22 Nov 2024 | EY ITEM Club comments | Media contact: James White - Senior Executive, Media Relations, Ernst & Young LLP

November PMI won’t set alarm bells ringing yet

  • The UK flash composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) slipped in November, falling into contractionary territory for the first time in 12 months. However, the reading should be viewed with caution given the recent weak link between the PMI and official estimates of activity growth, and the degree to which the PMI is affected by sentiment.
  • The EY ITEM Club does not think today's PMI will cause the Bank of England to deviate from the ‘cut hold’ tempo. While activity and the labour market weakened, indicators of inflationary pressures remained elevated and will likely leave the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) wanting to tread cautiously. The EY ITEM Club continues to expect the Bank of England to keep Bank Rate at 4.75% at its December meeting.

Matt Swannell, Chief Economic Advisor to the EY ITEM Club, said: “November's flash S&P Global survey saw the composite PMI fall to 49.9, down from 51.8 in October - the first time the balance has fallen below the 50 ‘no change’ mark in 12 months. The softening in activity was across both services and manufacturing sectors, with the services sector holding flat on the month and manufacturing output declining. New work also fell, as respondents to the survey noted a softening in domestic demand conditions and increased geopolitical uncertainty.

“The composite PMI is a relatively poor leading indicator of GDP growth, particularly given recent volatility in sectors not covered by the S&P Global surveys. The survey results also tend to be heavily affected by sentiment, and the recent weakening in the PMIs may have been overstated by responses from businesses to the increase in employers' national insurance contributions announced in the Budget and geopolitical uncertainty. Nonetheless, the EY ITEM Club thinks that the survey, combined with this morning's retail sales data, confirms that growth will likely continue to be softer in Q4 2024, than it was in H1.

“Despite the softening in activity, the November flash PMI is unlikely to prompt the Bank of England to break from the ‘cut hold’ tempo it has established. Although today's survey also reported falling employment levels, input and output price balances still showed signs of inflationary pressures that the Bank of England will need to remain cautions of. Therefore, the EY ITEM Club expects Bank Rate to be kept at 4.75% at December's meeting.”

22 Nov 2024 | EY ITEM Club comments | Media contact: James White - Senior Executive, Media Relations, Ernst & Young LLP

Retail sales fell in October, but overall picture remains decent

  • UK retail sales volumes slumped in October, as the recent outperformance in non-food sales corrected. The retail sales series has been exceptionally volatile over the past year, so today's data should be treated with a degree of caution. The EY ITEM Club still expects quarterly GDP growth to pick up in Q4.
  • The retail outlook for 2025 remains relatively good. Tight fiscal and monetary policy settings will continue to weigh on spending power. But real household income growth is set to remain solid and higher levels of regular saving than historical norms mean there is also some scope for spending growth. Provided that consumer confidence continues to recover, the EY ITEM Club thinks retail sales will strengthen next year.

Matt Swannell, Chief Economic Advisor to the EY ITEM Club, said: “Following three successive month-on-month gains, retail sales volumes fell 0.7% in October. Fortunes varied across the sectors, with non-food sales dropping back particularly significantly after a recent period of outperformance. Elsewhere, there were also softer readings for food and online sales. These downward pressures were more than enough to offset an improvement in fuel sales.

“The EY ITEM Club doesn't see October's disappointing retailing outturn as a major cause for concern given the fact that retail sales data has been exceptionally volatile over the past year. And though official and survey-based activity data has been weaker of late, the EY ITEM Club thinks the recent drop-off probably understates the overall momentum in the economy. There's a good chance that GDP growth in Q4 is a bit stronger than in Q3.

“Looking further ahead, there is reason for cautious optimism around the retail outlook for 2025. Though tight fiscal and monetary policy settings will weigh on activity, real household income is likely to remain solid next year. Moreover, higher levels of regular saving than historical norms mean there is some scope for spending to outpace income growth. The key uncertainty is the degree to which consumer confidence improves, and this morning's GfK survey provided some slightly more upbeat signs in that respect. Therefore, on balance, the EY ITEM Club expects these factors to support a further improvement in retail sales next year.”

21 Nov 2024 | EY ITEM Club comments | Media contact: James White - Senior Executive, Media Relations, Ernst & Young LLP

October public finances show no progress on borrowing

  • October's public finances data showed that relative to last year the UK is yet to make headway in reducing borrowing. This largely reflects continued spending pressures.
  • Even after the increase in borrowing announced at the Budget, fiscal policy will remain restrictive over the coming years. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) and the Bank of England think the Budget will provide a material boost to near-term growth, but there remains some uncertainty around these estimates. Future tax rises still cannot be ruled out.

Matt Swannell, Chief Economic Advisor to the EY ITEM Club, said: “Public sector net borrowing (excluding public sector banks) came in at £17.4bn in October, £1.6bn more than a year ago and the second-highest October on record. This meant that between April and October, borrowing totalled £96.6bn, £1.1bn higher than at the same point in the last fiscal year. Continued spending pressure is the main reason that borrowing is higher than in 2023-2024. 

“Reflecting some of these spending pressures currently facing the Government, the Budget saw an increase in spending, taxation, and borrowing. As a result, fiscal policy will be looser than previous plans suggested. The OBR and Bank of England estimate that less restrictive policy will boost GDP growth next year by 0.5ppts and 0.75ppts, respectively. However, there remains uncertainty around these estimates and the precise effect that the Budget measures will have on the growth outlook. 

“Despite the changes announced at the Budget, fiscal policy will continue to tighten over the next few years. Moreover, the Chancellor has left herself little wiggle room against her own fiscal rules and may need to implement more tax rises in future years if the tax take disappoints or spending proves higher. Indeed, if the rise in market interest rates since the Budget is sustained, the Government would already have less headroom against its fiscal targets.” 

20 Nov 2024 | EY ITEM Club comments | Media contact: James White - Senior Executive, Media Relations, Ernst & Young LLP

Inflation rose in October due to higher energy price cap

  • UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rose in October, as Ofgem's higher energy price cap came into play and September's base effects faded. These factors more than offset a fall in petrol prices. The EY ITEM Club thinks headline inflation will drift upwards in the near-term as first base effects push up core goods inflation, then from next spring the drag from energy disappears.
  • Overall, there was nothing in today's release to suggest that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will increase the tempo of rate cuts, so the EY ITEM Club still expects the MPC to vote to hold Bank Rate at 4.75% in December.

Matt Swannell, Chief Economic Advisor to the EY ITEM Club, said: “Inflation's foray below the Bank of England's 2% target proved short-lived, with the CPI measure rising to 2.3% in October, up from 1.7% in September. October's higher outturn reflected a combination of the 9.5% rise in the Ofgem energy price cap and September's large base effects disappearing. These upward pressures were partly offset by a 2% month-on-month fall in fuel prices between September and October, versus a rise of similar magnitude in the same period in 2023.

“The EY ITEM Club thinks inflation will rise further in the near-term. Base effects caused by a series of soft readings for core goods prices last winter will push up core inflation in the latter part of this year. The drag from the energy category will disappear from the spring, while the EY ITEM Club expects core inflation to remain sticky. Headline inflation is likely to be above target throughout 2025.

“Overall, there was nothing in today's release that would have come as a surprise to the MPC, so the EY ITEM Club continues to  expect that Bank Rate will be held at 4.75% in December.”

15 Nov 2024 | EY ITEM Club comments | Media contact: James White - Senior Executive, Media Relations, Ernst & Young LLP

GDP growth underwhelmed in Q3

  • UK GDP fell modestly in September, as lower output in the manufacturing and other services sectors offset a small rise in consumer-facing services. September's decline left GDP up 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, a significant step down from the above-trend growth rates seen in H1 2024.
  • The EY ITEM Club expects GDP growth to be steady rather than spectacular in 2025. Policy changes in the recent Budget suggest the fiscal stance will be less restrictive than under the previous government's plans, while further gains in real incomes should support consumer spending. However, the lagged passthrough of past interest rate rises will continue to weigh on the growth outlook.

Matt Swannell, Chief Economic Advisor to the EY ITEM Club, said: “GDP fell by 0.1% month-on-month in September, which was below expectations. At the sectoral level, the story was one of several offsetting forces. A fall in manufacturing output continued the recent volatility in that sector, outweighing a very modest rise in construction activity. Meanwhile, services sector activity was flat as an unusually weak outturn in the information and communications sector offset the gain from some of August's anomalies unwinding. The EY ITEM Club suspects that the fall in communications output will prove to be a blip.

“September's outturn meant quarter-on-quarter GDP growth slowed to just 0.1% in Q3, from 0.5% in Q2. However, the first cut of the expenditure data was more reassuring, with strong contributions from household consumption, investment and government spending.

“Looking ahead, the EY ITEM Club expects the economy to grow at a solid, albeit unspectacular pace in 2025, but this is likely to mask some offsetting forces. Measures announced in the Chancellor's Autumn Budget suggest fiscal policy will be less restrictive than under the previous government's plans, while the effects from looser US fiscal policy should also act as a modest tailwind. Firm real income growth, together with some dis-saving, should support stronger consumer spending to an extent. However, tight financial conditions will continue to weigh on disposable incomes as the lagged impact of past interest rate rises continues to emerge.”

07 Nov 2024 | EY ITEM Club comments | Media contact: James White - Senior Executive, Media Relations, Ernst & Young LLP

Bank of England continuing to take a gradual approach to rate cuts

  • The Bank of England’s 25bps cut in Bank Rate to 4.75% in November is a sign that the majority of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is gaining more confidence that inflation is becoming less sticky.
  • The MPC is not done and will likely continue to cut Bank Rate further from here. However, while the MPC stopped short of setting out the exact pace of future cuts, any future adjustment will be gradual.
  • The MPC did not explicitly rule in or rule out a cut in Bank Rate at its December meeting, but the EY ITEM Club thinks that stronger growth and inflation forecasts will likely give the Committee cause to be cautious.

Matt Swannell, Chief Economic Advisor to the EY ITEM Club, said: “The MPC took the decision to reduce Bank Rate to 4.75% today, while indicating that future Bank Rate cuts will continue to be gradual, as the EY ITEM Club expected. The MPC stopped short of offering any guidance as to how they will act in December.

“In its first meeting since the Autumn Budget, the broad tone from Governor Andrew Bailey and the majority of the MPC was similar to recent communications. Confidence amongst most of the Committee is gradually growing that inflation stickiness is slowly easing and that future reductions in Bank Rate will likely be appropriate. However, the MPC stopped short of giving an exact path for the pace of rate cuts. 

“On balance, the EY ITEM Club expects that the MPC may want to leave Bank Rate unchanged at 4.75% in December. Indeed, the Bank of England’s updated projections show stronger growth and inflation over 2025, which will likely give MPC members reason to be cautious when considering how quickly to reduce Bank Rate further. On the back of the Autumn Budget, the Bank of England’s 2025 growth forecast has been revised up to 1.5%, from 1.0% in August. At the same time, the inflation projection has been raised to 2.7% at the end of 2025, up from 2.2% three months ago. 

“However, with that said, over the last few months inflation has fallen quicker than the MPC expected. If that pattern is repeated over the next few weeks, there is a chance that the MPC may have more confidence that inflation stickiness is falling back. Therefore, another cut in December cannot be ruled out entirely.

“The MPC has been clear that further interest rate cuts will be gradual, and its medium-term inflation projection suggests that Bank Rate cuts into 2025 might be appropriate. The Bank of England’s medium-term inflation projection suggests that if interest rates were to fall back to around 3.5-3.75% over the next year or so and remain there, inflation would stabilise around, or a little below, the 2.0% target.” 

07 Nov 2024 | EY ITEM Club comments | Media contact: James White - Senior Executive, Media Relations, Ernst & Young LLP

Halifax house price data shows recent momentum continued into October

  • House prices increased for the fourth consecutive month in October. The Halifax estimate of average house prices has now reached a record high, overtaking the previous peak reached in June 2022. 
  • The EY ITEM Club expects that the Bank of England will cut Bank Rate by 25bps later today, and will lower interest rates gradually into 2025. The EY ITEM Club continues to expect a modest improvement in the housing market as interest rates edge down.

Matt Swannell, Chief Economic Advisor to the EY ITEM Club, said: “The Halifax house price index ticked up by 0.2% in October, continuing recent momentum. The Halifax average house price estimate has now risen for each of the last four months, and has grown by 3.9% over the 12 months to October. Following recent gains, house prices have now made up all the ground lost since mid-2022’s previous peak, with Halifax estimating that the average house price in October reached a new record high of £293,999. 

“The recent momentum in the Halifax house price data has been matched by the recent data on housing market activity, which saw a pickup over the summer and into September as the prospect and then the delivery of the Bank of England’s first cut in interest rates boosted mortgage demand. However, following the Budget and markets taking a more hawkish view of the future path of US interest rates, financial market swap rates have risen in recent weeks. With the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) due to set out its latest thinking at today’s November meeting, the outlook for swap rates remains uncertain. However, if the recent increase in swap rates persists and feeds into mortgage rates, it could dampen the recovery in housing market activity.

“The EY ITEM Club does not think that the recent Budget has taken interest rate cuts off the table, and expects the Bank of England to cut Bank Rate by 25bps later today. But the EY ITEM Club expects that the Bank of England will tread cautiously as it lowers Bank Rate further through 2025. Even then, while interest rates may be falling, they will remain above the levels seen before the pandemic, while housing valuations remain quite high. All told, the EY ITEM Club continues to expect a gradual improvement in the housing market over the next year or so.”

06 Nov 2024 | EY ITEM Club comments | Media contact: James White - Senior Executive, Media Relations, Ernst & Young LLP

Construction activity remains solid at the start of Q4

  • October’s construction Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) pointed to another month of solid performance in the sector with improvements in domestic economic conditions continuing to support demand.
  • The construction sector looks likely to support economic activity into the final quarter of the year. Nonetheless, the EY ITEM Club expects the UK economy to slow to around trend growth rates towards the end of this year.

Matt Swannell, Chief Economic Advisor to the EY ITEM Club, said: “October’s S&P Global construction PMI came in at 54.3 in October, a step down from the 57.2 recorded in September. However, the EY ITEM Club cautions against reading too much into the drop off. September’s reading was a 29-month high, and the October survey continues to point to healthy growth in the sector, outperforming the average over the first half of this year. Activity continued to grow in two of the three main sub-sectors (civil engineering and commercial work), with a slight decline in house building, where the PMI came in at 49.4.

“So far, the construction sector has performed well through most of 2024, with respondents to the survey reporting that activity has increased for eight consecutive months. With the Bank of England almost certain to cut Bank Rate by 25bps tomorrow, and further interest rate reductions into 2025 likely, conditions look to be in place for continued growth in the sector. Indeed, survey respondents reported that the pipeline of new work remains decent, although uncertainty around the Autumn Budget weighed on demand in October. 

“Overall, the broad trend is that the construction sector looks set to support growth into the final quarter of the year. But looking at the UK economy as a whole, GDP growth is likely to come in around trend rates in late-2024, with yesterday’s composite PMI outturn for October representing the softest reading of the year so far.” 

31 Oct 2024 | EY comments | Media contact: Justin Moll - Manager, Media Relations, Ernst & Young LLP

EY comments on Real Estate sector: Autumn Budget 2024 

Russell Gardner, EY UK Head of Real Estate, comments on the Real Estate announcements in the Chancellor’s Autumn Budget:

“The housebuilding industry will welcome the Chancellor’s pledge to hire more planning officers to help ‘get Britian building again’. However, question marks remain over where those recruits are coming from. The industry may also wonder why assistance will be restricted to support ‘small housebuilders’ given the volume of houses that need to be built.

“The real estate industry thrives on stability and clarity on tax policy, so is likely to welcome details of the new corporate tax road map. This will hopefully provide the reassurance and confidence they need to plan for the future accordingly.

“The increased rate of the Stamp Duty Land Tax surcharge on second homes is a continuation of the policies of the last few years to tax those, mainly overseas buyers, owning but only occasionally using UK houses and apartments. This, in combination with today's changes to non-domicile rules, is likely to impact the London residential market more than other parts of the UK.” 

30 Oct 2024 | EY comments | Media contact: Justin Moll - Manager, Media Relations, Ernst & Young LLP

EY comments on UK tax-to-GDP ratio: Autumn Budget 2024 

Chris Sanger, EY’s UK Tax Policy Leader, comments on the UK tax-to-GDP ratio following the Chancellor’s Autumn Budget:

“The OBR's latest forecast paints a striking picture, with the UK's tax-to-GDP ratio set to hit an all-time high of 38.2% by 2029-30, largely due to the tax increases announced in the Autumn Budget. Whilst increases in this measure, without any commensurate increase in spending, heralds a more inefficient system, it’s one that could represent good value or “an investment” if it actually delivers better services. Whether this increased tax-to-GDP ratio will be good value or inefficient will only really be known by the end of this Parliament.”

30 Oct 2024 | EY comments | Media contact: Justin Moll - Manager, Media Relations, Ernst & Young LLP

EY comments on the lack of pension related tax announcements: Budget 2024 

Paul Kitson, EY UK Pensions Consulting leader, comments on the lack of pension related tax announcements in the Chancellor’s Autumn Budget: 

“Despite speculation, National Insurance on employer pension contributions wasn’t introduced in today’s Budget, which will be very welcome news for the pensions sector. However, the introduction of inheritance tax on unspent pensions pots which the Chancellor did announce, will temper the good news, as it risks dampening the appeal of pensions as a savings vehicle – especially for higher earners. 

“While drastic change to pensions didn’t materialise in today’s Budget, all eyes will now be on the Mansion House Speech.” 

30 Oct 2024 | EY comments | Media contact: Justin Moll - Manager, Media Relations, Ernst & Young LLP

EY comments on e-invoicing: Budget 2024 

Chris Taylor, EY Indirect Tax Partner and E-invoicing Lead, EY, said:

“The introduction of e-invoicing in the UK is a crucial step towards a digital VAT system fit for the future, and so the consultation on e-invoicing, due to be published in early 2025, will be eagerly awaited. From a VAT digitalisation perspective, the UK is running to catch up, and e-invoicing has the prospect of reinforcing the other measures that the Government announced today targeted on closing the tax gap.

“The benefit of coming late to e-invoicing is that the UK can learn from the experience of other countries, tailoring the approaches that have been successful elsewhere to the UK’s bespoke environment. The publication of the consultation should provide enough opportunities for businesses to share the good, the bad and the ugly of e-invoicing implementation experience elsewhere with the Government.”

30 Oct 2024 | EY comments | Media contact: Justin Moll - Manager, Media Relations, Ernst & Young LLP

EY comments on non-dom changes: Autumn Budget 2024

Sarah Farrow, EY UK Private Client Services Partner, comments on changes to the non-domicile rules announced in the Chancellor’s Autumn Budget:

“The replacement of the non-domicile regime with a four-year foreign income and gains (FIG) regime has been widely discussed since it was first announced in the previous Government’s Spring Budget. There will be relief in the non-domicile community that the Chancellor has softened the Government’s position on some of the key points that were of most concern.

“Some aspects of the new regime will appeal to existing non-domiciled individuals, but for many the FIG regime will significantly increase their UK tax liability. For expats looking to return to the UK and individuals considering a short visit, the new regime will make the UK more attractive as they will be able to use their foreign income and gains here without being taxed on it for the first four years.

“However, those intending to visit for shorter periods to benefit from the four-year regime may be less likely to invest in the UK than the existing non-domicile population. Some high net worth individuals, with an eye on investments that typically require a longer period to mature, may decide to channel their substantial financial commitments to other countries, particularly those where nom-domicile regimes can extend up to ten years.

“Extending the Overseas Workday Relief from three to four years improves on the previous regime's taxation of employment income. This offers additional stability and strengthens the UK’s competitiveness as a place to locate business headquarters and other operations, although it does not match the five years offered by markets such as the Netherlands, France, Denmark, Spain and Italy.”

Nicholas Yassukovich, EY UK Financial Services Partner, adds:

“The non-domicile tax regime has been a key driver in attracting senior international financial services talent to the UK, especially in the banking and asset management sectors.

"Although it is softer than many expected, the new four-year foreign income and gains (FIG) regime will increase the tax burden on non-domiciled individuals and could act as a disincentive to financial services workers relocating to the UK.

"The extension of relief on employment income from three to four years will be welcomed, but is not yet in line with the five years offered by key financial hubs such as Amsterdam, Paris, Luxembourg, Madrid and Milan.”

30 Oct 2024 | EY comments | Media contact: Justin Moll - Manager, Media Relations, Ernst & Young LLP

EY comments on measures to boost the UK visual effects sector: Budget 2024 

Anna Fry, Partner and UK TMT Tax Market Leader, EY, comments on measures to boost the UK visual effects sector announced at the Chancellor’s Autumn Budget: 

“Today’s announcement confirms that UK visual effects costs in film and high-end programmes will receive a 5% increase in Audio-Visual Expenditure Credit and can be outside of the 80% cap on qualifying expenditure. This broadly aligns with the previous government’s proposals announced in the Spring Budget and will be well-received by the sector.

“Although there are some caveats, such as the additional tax credit generally being available only after productions are completed, this measure highlights the strong political support for the UK film industry, which has grown significantly since production incentives were introduced.

“This Government has been keen to show its support for the UK creative industries with it recognised as one of the eight key growth sectors identified in the Industrial Strategy Green Paper published earlier this month.”

30 Oct 2024 | EY comments | Media contact: Justin Moll - Manager, Media Relations, Ernst & Young LLP

EY comments on the corporate tax road map: Budget 2024 

Chris Sanger, EY’s UK Tax Policy Leader, comments on the corporate tax road map announced at the Chancellor’s Autumn Budget:

“The publication of the corporate tax road map was an opportunity for the Government to set out clearly the direction of its policy for business – and on the face of it, it has. The document talks about enhancing predictability, stability and certainty, which it seeks to do by providing confirmation that certain elements won’t change. It also addresses some of the calls for reform, announcing six areas of consultation. Overall, the intent is to improve the operation, accessibility, and targeting of the system and improve the ‘customer experience.’

“The road map is positioned alongside the Industrial Strategy and the upcoming Spending Review, implying that this could be a living document that can be built upon as Labour policy develops. Overall, it does provide some clear paths to the future and will offer some additional certainty to investors, but it would be good if it could be seen as the first stage of the discussion. There is an opportunity - perhaps as part of the future consultations - for the Government to commit to further areas of principle. This could then bring even greater predictability and, with it, greater investment into the UK, by both domestic and international companies.”

30 Oct 2024 | EY comments | Media contact: Justin Moll - Manager, Media Relations, Ernst & Young LLP

EY comments on VAT on private school fees: Budget 2024 

Carolyn Norfolk, EY Indirect Tax Partner and Education Lead, comments on VAT on private school fees:

“While the Budget included further details around the introduction of VAT on private school fees, it is likely that many providers will still find it challenging to fully get to grips with the new rules by the effective date of 1 January 2025. The new regime involves a variety of complexities and, perhaps equally challenging, will come into force part way through the school year.

“Many providers faced with delivering the change may have hoped that the Chancellor would have announced a delay to the implementation date to allow more time to review the final legislation and obtain clarity from HMRC over areas of uncertainty.”  

30 Oct 2024 | EY comments | Media contact: Justin Moll - Manager, Media Relations, Ernst & Young LLP

EY comments on personal tax and CGT: Autumn Budget 2024

Sarah Farrow, EY Private Client Services Partner, comments on the personal tax measures announced in the Chancellor’s Autumn Budget:

“For UK workers whose earnings stem solely from wages or salaries, the Budget held few immediate surprises for their personal finances. The Chancellor had committed to not increase current income tax and employee national insurance rates and, while the decision to not extend the freezes on personal allowance and higher rate tax bands will be welcomed by many taxpayers, they’ll need to wait until 2028 to see the difference in their take-home pay.”

Changes to Capital Gains Tax

“Following the speculation in the run up to the Budget, today’s announced increase to the main Capital Gains Tax rate may feel relatively light in comparison. The Chancellor may hope that this achieves the best of both worlds, generating an initial pre-Budget boost to Exchequer receipts with some selling assets in anticipation of a steeper hike, while the eventual, more modest, four percentage point rise is tolerable enough to avoid many holding onto assets in the future as they wait for a drop in the rate. 

“In contrast to the Treasury’s own data forecast, that a ten percentage point increase in Capital Gains Tax rates would cost an estimated £1.4bn by the end of 2027, the increases introduced today are estimated to raise £2.5bn per annum by the end of the Parliament. It appears the Chancellor agreed that a smaller adjustment would offer better revenue-raising opportunities.”

30 Oct 2024 | EY comments | Media contact: Justin Moll - Manager, Media Relations, Ernst & Young LLP

EY comments on the retail sector: Autumn Budget 2024 

Andy Jones, Partner, Retail Indirect Tax Leader at EY UK, comments on the retail measures announced in the Chancellor’s Autumn Budget:

“For retailers, the bottom line is that today’s Budget will likely result in increased cost pressures amid what is already a challenging backdrop. A particularly significant headline, as expected, is the proposed increase in the national minimum wage and National Insurance Contributions (NICs) for employers. Whilst good news for workers, this will impact retailers during a time of already-intense cost pressures.

“Moreover, whilst the announcement to ease the removal of the business rate discount will be welcome news for some businesses, it will still be an increase on the amounts paid today. That said, many may be hopeful that it is a first indication of the new Government’s approach to taxation and an indication that further reliefs that may come in the future. Therefore, overall, whilst the freeze on fuel duty and the reduction in Alcohol Duty rates for draught products will be welcomed, the Budget will likely lead to increased inflationary pressures for retailers and likely price rises for consumers.”

Chris Sanger, EY’s tax policy leader, added:

“Business Rates is an area that governments have struggled with for at least the last decade. This is a tax that is paid regardless of whether a business is in the red or the black - whether there are profits to fund this tax or not. We have seen the tax rate increase from the low 40s to the high 50s, marking a big increase in the costs for those firms using real estate. 

“Today’s announcement of a permanently lower sector multiplier for retail, hospitality and leisure will be recognising the fact that such businesses pay a far higher proportion of the business rates bill than their share of the economy. The fact that this will be paid for by those with larger properties is likely to be less welcome, building even greater bias into the tax system. The future consultation will provide the opportunity for this and other distortions of the business rates system to be debated and hopefully addressed.”

30 Oct 2024 | EY comments | Media contact: Justin Moll - Manager, Media Relations, Ernst & Young LLP

EY comments on GGT on carried interest: Budget 2024 

Sonia Rai, EY Partner, comments on carried interest:

“Today’s announcement reinforces the Chancellor’s commitment to focusing on growth and ensuring the UK remains a competitive place to do business. Sustaining the carried interest regime will be intended to stabilise an industry which is heavily dependent on talent and entrepreneurship brought to the UK by internationally mobile fund executives.

“The 32% rate of capital gains tax (CGT) from April 2025 on carried interest preserves the UK as a hub for private capital investment and should prevent the immediate departure of fund managers from the UK.

“The industry wider reforms, due to come into force from April 2026, aim to keep the effective rate on carried interest at around 34%, despite it being under the income tax regime.

“The impact of the carried interest reforms on the UK's long-term competitiveness - along with the abolition of the non-dom tax status and the inheritance tax announcement - is yet to be seen, but the worst fears arising from what was originally touted have clearly been lessened.”

 

30 Oct 2024 | EY comments | Media contact: Justin Moll - Manager, Media Relations, Ernst & Young LLP

EY Comments: A challenging Autumn Budget for many UK businesses

Laura Mair, EY UK&I Managing Partner for Tax and Law, comments on the business-focused measures announced in the Autumn Budget:

"From a business perspective, this was a typical post-election Budget, focused more on tightening belts than loosening purse strings and, while investment was a key theme in the Chancellor's speech, some of these measures will represent a challenge for many UK companies.

“The 1.2 percentage point increase in Employer National Insurance Contributions, and the reduction in the threshold at which these are paid to £5,000, is estimated to raise an additional £23bn a year, making up more than half of the fresh tax take announced by the Chancellor. While an increase to NI allowances will offer some protection for small businesses, this remains a substantial increase in costs for larger firms. Much of this will be shouldered initially by labour-intensive industries where staffing is often the greatest expense, such as those in hospitality, rather than capital-intensive companies, which rely more on assets like machinery or intellectual property.

"Businesses typically respond to such tax increases by restricting pay rises and new hiring, delaying investment or raising prices to pass on the cost. Any of those actions, repeated at scale, risks having a dampening effect on UK growth. The challenge for the Chancellor will be how to balance the necessary task of revenue raising whilst also accelerating growth.

"The Business Tax Roadmap is intended to offer much-needed predictability over how corporation tax will develop across the lifespan of major investments, and the commitment to maintain Full Expensing, the Annual Investment Allowance and R&D reliefs will be welcome mark of policy stability for many. However, there is room to enhance the UK tax system's attractiveness to investors. EY's annual Attractiveness Survey has repeatedly shown* that, while the UK's regulatory environment, strong domestic market and availability of capital are highly appealing to global investors, its tax environment is regarded less favourably. There is work to be done here and both businesses and investors will hope the Chancellor continues to follow tradition in her future Budgets by unveiling incentives and tax cuts to promote further investment and growth.”

*UK Attractiveness Survey 2024 - 400 global investment decision-makers were asked which factors are the most important when choosing to invest in the UK:

  • 50% said legal and regulatory environment (e.g. laws for AI, sustainability, data protection etc)
  • 48% said liquidity of financial markets and availability of capital
  • 33% said strength of domestic market
  • 10% said tax environment
30 Oct 2024 | EY comments | Media contact: Justin Moll - Manager, Media Relations, Ernst & Young LLP

EY comments on the Autumn Budget 2024

Chris Sanger, UK Tax Policy Leader at EY, comments on the Chancellor’s Autumn Budget:

 “Today’s Budget, coming just one day before Halloween, was packed with both frights and treats. With 70 policy decisions, the 168-page red book delivered a whole plethora of announcements, many of which were only touched on in the 77 minute speech. The Budget was replete with tax rises, spending changes and some targeted giveaways. With so many changes, it seems that tax simplification is a policy that will have to wait its turn.

 “Some of the measures were indeed well trailed, if not pre-announced. A rise in employers’ national insurance by 1.2%, together with a reduction in the level at which such NICs is paid, will raise almost two-thirds of the total £40bn target revenue. This hit to the cost of employing workers will be felt first by employers, but is likely to flow into lower pay rises and more constrained recruitment in the future. Categorised by the Treasury as a cost of employment, the Chancellor will be hoping that how the money is used will outweigh the drag on the economy.

 “The other foreshadowed change on capital gains will raise a further £2.5bn, simplifying the rate bands and taking the 20% tax rate up to the 24% rate that applies to property. Somewhat smaller than had been feared, the speculation itself will already have brought money into the Exchequer. On carried interest, the Government is moving this from capital gains into income tax, but taxing it at a lower rate, broadly equivalent to 34%.

 “There were strong measures on inheritance tax, with the extension to include pensions as well as only partial relief for agricultural and other businesses, and shares listed on the Alternative Investment Market. The effect of these changes will take time to be seen.

 “The treats were few and far between. One treat was somewhat invisible – a further freeze in the fuel duty and retention of the 5p cut, costing over £3bn against what was in the forecast but not in the minds of many taxpayers. Other such invisible treats were discussions of taxes considered and then ruled out.

 “The Chancellor has also invested heavily into HMRC and tackling the tax gap, with 5,000 new staff and imposing new obligations on recruitment agents delivering an extra £6.5bn per annum - a huge part of the targeted £40bn.

 “Many will be hoping that, having had the shock from this Budget, the future years will be filled far more with far more treats.”

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