EY comments on ONS retail sales figures for September 2024

Silvia Rindone, EY UK&I Retail Lead comments: "The latest figures from the Office for National Statistics show that retail sales rose by 0.3% in September and 1.9% in Q3 (July to September), when compared to Q 2 (April to June).

"Clothing sales saw a resurgence in September with non-food store sales volumes rising by 2.5% in September, as consumers sought to update their seasonal wardrobe, accelerated by the cooler weather.

"The next few months will be critical as retailers brace themselves for the 'golden quarter,' with key shopping events such as Halloween and Black Friday drawing near. Retailers will be using discounting strategies to stimulate consumer spending and manage stock levels more effectively.

“Retail sales could still be volatile in the run up to Christmas, with retailers who can target particular customers seeing more success. 

“However, this year's discounting efforts seem to be more spread, indicating less pressing need to offload stock as retailers have learned improved inventory management. However, the possibility of a 'Black November' remains, as retailers spread out the trading period to avoid the intense competition of the year-end rush.

"As we progress through the final quarter, it will be imperative for retailers to closely monitor sales volumes, inventory, and the competitive landscape. The balance between timely promotions and the risk of premature discounting is delicate; retailers must navigate this with care to avoid the pitfalls of either scenario—be it stock shortages or overstock. It's a precarious path that demands strategic foresight and agility."