Why the UK should narrowly avoid recession though growth is downgraded

In this webcast, our speakers preview the latest EY ITEM Club Summer Forecast and discuss the implications for the UK’s economic recovery amidst rising inflation, interest rates and energy prices.

The UK’s economic and political landscape continues to change at pace; the Prime Minister has resigned, which could signal policy changes ahead. In terms of growth, the two-year backdrop of COVID-19 disruption means a strong and sustained recovery for the UK economy is looking increasingly challenged. Inflation has reached a 40-year high, the price of energy and other commodities continue to break records, and households face a squeeze on their spending power unseen since the 1970s. Is a recession inevitable? Not necessarily. The strong jobs market and healthy household balance sheets are two reasons not to overdo angst about the economy.

Our speakers Peter Arnold, EY UK Chief Economist, and Martin Beck, Chief Economic Advisor to EY ITEM Club, review the forecast and discuss the implications for the UK’s economic recovery.

Topics discussed include:

• An exploration of the challenges facing the UK as it attempts to rebound from COVID-19

• A discussion on why the prognosis for growth has deteriorated compared to our EY ITEM Club Spring Forecast prediction

• What the balance of forces affecting the economy — negative and positive – might mean for the overall outlook