If quantum’s the next leap forward, what small steps can you take now?

First-movers are using quantum computing to speed up their calculations. Are you ready for its opportunities and risks?

In brief

• Some companies are already running pilots with small quantum computers to speed up time-sensitive analyses.
• Although the current number of active use cases is small, the range and breadth will grow exponentially once quantum fully matures in 10 to 30 years from now.
• Business leaders should put quantum technology on the security agenda now and work on quantum-proofing the security setup already.

We’ve all heard about the transformational potential of blockchain, cloud and metaverse. Quantum is the latest on the list of emerging technologies that promise to revolutionize many aspects of our lives. In fact, if you’ve ever needed an MRI scan, for example, you’ve already benefited from the subatomic rules of physics behind what many believe will be the next technological leap forward.

So, what is quantum technology? In the absence of a generally recognized definition of quantum technology, let’s put it into our own words: quantum technology basically refers to the new generation of computers that process information as quantum bits (qubits) rather than as strings of binary code, i.e., the ones and zeros we see in today’s classical computing.

Are we on the brink of the quantum era?  Let’s just say, it’s complicated. And it depends who you ask. Research and development in quantum technology is progressing at speed but the scientific and business community is divided about when it will become a reality. The consensus seems to put the timeframe to maturity at between 10 and 30 years.

Even at this stage of development, the quantum computing market is projected to grow from USD 486.1 million in 2021 to USD 3,180.9 million in 2028 at a CAGR of 30.8% (Fortune Business Insights, 2022). When it does come – and most agree it’s a question of when, not if – quantum will change and challenge everything. At EY, we’re advising our clients to consider the risks and opportunities of quantum technology as part of their extensive ongoing digital transformation programs.

Let’s start with opportunities. The biggest benefit of quantum is its potential to enhance the world’s computing power by a factor of thousands. With qubits, we can parallelize many calculations. While some calculations can’t be sped up by parallelizing, many can. A data scientist can estimate in advance if quantum or binary computing is faster, for example, by drawing a graph of the problem and looking at its shape. Using the optimal combination of qubits and bits vastly accelerates the speed at which we can run analyses and perform tasks. This speed advantage is what makes quantum so attractive across a broad range of industries, especially in combination with machine learning and artificial intelligence.

In fact, in banking we can already observe the use of “dirty quantum” – a small-scale, imperfect form of the technology which is being used to make faster trades in time-critical foreign exchange positions. Even in its unrefined state, quantum technology is good enough to offer a valuable speed edge. Since various key questions remain unresolved in quantum technology, we can expect to see an increase in quantum-inspired and quantum-supported technology before the real deal hits the market. And when it does, there are many industries that stand to benefit from it, including:

The range and breadth of use cases is set to grow as the technology comes of age. Across use cases, the comparative energy efficiency of quantum compared to classical computing will also resonate with stakeholders’ ESG ambitions. Even though a high degree of cooling is required for quantum computers, the efficiency gains should result in less net emissions with better outcomes.

What about risks, then? Here we once again need to start with speed. As we’ve already seen, quantum computing is fast. We’re talking fast enough to crack certain types of encryption keys in a matter of minutes, rather than the millions of years that traditional computers would take. This challenges the entire security paradigm and will have massive repercussions for traditional internet security, especially as certain groups with malevolent intentions may already be saving companies’ data ready for when quantum matures. It’s why we recommend adding quantum-proofness to the IT security agenda already.

Another risk is the uncertainty about when exactly quantum will come of age. Business leaders will need to follow developments closely to ensure their organizations are ready to respond. For example, they should be asking:

• Could quantum technology have a place in our business model?
• How does quantum affect our security posture?
• Can we use quantum computers to speed up data-intensive work such as tax or business intelligence analysis?