EY ITEM Club

The EY ITEM Club is a leading UK economic forecasting group.

 

We produce quarterly economic UK forecasts, special reports and forecasts for Scotland and the financial services sector. We also deliver daily analysis on UK economic data.

EY ITEM Club Winter Forecast

Our forecast looks at what’s driving the UK’s economic outlook, with a spotlight on the labour market and consumer spending.

Read the forecast (PDF, 3MB)
Watch the webcast on-demand
Landscape photograph of spring blossom in front of colourful London houses.

Featured press releases

Lanscape photograph of business people standing in an atrium in a modern office

UK economy set for modest growth in 2026 amid global uncertainty

The EY ITEM Club Winter 2026 Forecast for the UK economy, including interest rates, GDP, inflation, business investment and unemployment.

02 Feb 2026 | London, United Kingdom | Rob Joyce

Landscape photograph of the Thames path along the Thames river

UK growth forecast upgraded to 1.5% for 2025, but GDP to slow next year

The EY ITEM Club Autumn 2025 Forecast for the UK economy, including interest rates, GDP, inflation, business investment and unemployment.

03 Nov 2025 | London, United Kingdom | Rob Joyce

UK GDP forecast upgraded but outlook subdued

28 Jul 2025 | London, United Kingdom

Trade uncertainty set to weigh on UK growth over the next two years

28 Apr 2025 | London, United Kingdom

Urgency to address low productivity and high labour market inactivity

06 Mar 2025 | Edinburgh, United Kingdom

Economics

View all our economic insights which provide knowledge and analysis to help businesses understand the economic environments they operate in. 

Find out more
Businessmen looking at graphs

The team

Peter Arnold

EY UK Chief Economist
Economics leader with over 20 years of experience. Advises public and private sector clients on macroeconomics, policies, regulation and competition. Improves client strategies via analytics.
London, United Kingdom
Contact us
Like what you’ve seen? Get in touch to learn more.

EY refers to the global organization, and may refer to one or more, of the member firms of Ernst & Young Global Limited, each of which is a separate legal entity. Ernst & Young Global Limited, a UK company limited by guarantee, does not provide services to clients.