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Mark Main, EY UK Transport Lead, comments on the latest Heavy Goods Vehicle (HGV) registration stats from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT):
“Sales of Heavy Goods Vehicles (HGVs) fell in 2024, with registrations down by 2.7% year-on-year to 44,988 units.
“The decline was driven by articulated trucks, which saw sales fall by 12.4% in 2024. In contrast, new rigid trucks saw a 6% increase in registrations, while demand for box, curtain-sided, tipper and flat truck bodies were also on the rise. Tractors saw a 13.4% fall in registrations, but remain the most popular vehicle type.
“Despite the downward movement in 2024, last year still saw the second-highest annual HGV registration figures over the last five years, and the third-highest in the last 10 years, so the reduction seen in these latest figures shouldn’t provide an alarming cause for concern.
“However, demand for zero emissions trucks fell by 7.3% to only 217 units, down from 234 in 2023, which signifies a marked challenge for the decarbonisation of the UK’s HGV market, particularly given the UK’s plans to ban the sale of non-zero emissions trucks with a weight of up to 26 tonnes in 2035, which would cover nearly 75% of the market last year. Indeed, market share for zero emissions electric HGVs (eHGVs) remains at only 0.5%, which underscores the significant magnitude of the challenge ahead, especially as the electric car market has faced persistent, stubborn challenges in accelerating uptake in line with the Zero Emissions Vehicle (ZEV) Mandate.
“However, interest in the decarbonisation of the HGV market from investors and Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) is increasing, and OEMs continue to launch new products, which bodes well for forward-looking prospects. Nonetheless, it’s imperative that eHGV charging infrastructure is improved, built out and accelerated significantly in the coming years. A review of vehicle pricing and incentives could also provide crucial support to eHGV adoption over the next decade.
“On that topic, several organisations have begun to show tangible interest in supporting the development of charging infrastructure and eHGV charging networks, so there are undoubtedly reasons for optimism. Furthermore, we are seeing eHGV affordability improving, albeit steadily.
“Indeed, it is now looking increasingly viable that price parity between eHGVs and diesel HGVs could become a reality much sooner than previously thought, potentially as early as 2028. And with organisations acutely aware of the need to decarbonise their fleets, further green shoots for the eHGV transition could be in prospect. Maintaining a cleaner and greener fleet may well offer a competitive advantage during future bidding processes for competitive tenders, given the knock-on effect for customers’ scope 3 emissions.
“Notwithstanding the valid reasons for positivity, the ongoing marked headwinds facing the eHGV market cannot be downplayed. Total cost of ownership (TCO) and upfront vehicle purchase prices remain high, which continues to be a factor deterring some companies from decarbonising their fleets. And with several eHGV manufacturers recently facing well-documented financial difficulty, it’s clear to see why the road ahead remains challenging.”