India energy transition

How India’s sustainable development goals are powering its growth while striving for net zero

India’s role in global energy transition is driving a cleaner future, with non-fossil fuels now at 45% capacity and a bold target of 500 GW by 2030.



India's energy transition journey stands at a crucial junction of ambition and necessity, driven by its dual pursuit of economic growth and environmental sustainability. As the nation faces the urgent challenges of climate change, it seeks to redefine its energy landscape by balancing the imperatives of decarbonization with the growing energy demands of its population. This transformative shift would require renewable energy expansion, innovative policies and multi-sectoral collaboration, aiming to position India as a global leader in sustainable energy while safeguarding its developmental aspirations. 

Driving economic prosperity through India energy transition
1

Chapter 1

Driving economic prosperity through India energy transition

The target of India net zero by 2070 will a require multi-stakeholder and multi-pronged approach to energy transition.

As a country vulnerable to climate change, India must ensure that the impact on natural habitats, agriculture and bio-resources is limited, especially considering the population's high dependence on agriculture. India is on track to meet its 2030 goals and has set ambitious targets under its ‘Panchamrit’ framework as part of its Nationally Determined Contributions under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Panchamrit’ framework

India's renewable energy capacity has grown five-fold from 24 GW in 2014-15 to 136 GW in 2024-25. Non-fossil fuel-based capacity has increased from 78 GW (29% of total capacity) in 2014-15 to 199 GW (45% of total capacity) in 2023-24. The country is on track to meet its 50% non-fossil fuel target by 2030. Additionally, India has set a target of 500 GW of non-fossil fuel-based power generation capacity by 2030. Currently, the country has about 135 GW of generation capacity, either under construction or development. Given the current pace, it is likely that this target will be achieved. India has also reduced its emissions intensity by 40% compared to 2005 levels, showing strong progress toward its NDC target of a 45% reduction by 2030.

India’s Energy transition and decarbonization are complex processes with no one-size-fits-all solution. While detailed pathways will evolve, current policies and initiatives focus on developing key building blocks. These include creating demand for energy transition by facilitating access to competitive green power, mandating renewable purchase obligations for industries and DISCOMs, blending biofuels, and introducing market-based instruments like emissions trading systems. Policy and fiscal support for new technologies, such as green hydrogen, offshore power, and battery storage, is also emphasized. Additionally, production-linked incentives aim to develop a domestic supply chain through financial support to ensure competitive energy supply, economic resilience, and energy independence. The focus on base load power, particularly through an increased share of nuclear energy capacity, remains critical. Furthermore, policies to facilitate capital flow for energy, including green bonds, green deposits, and proposals on green taxonomy, underline the financial commitment to energy transition.

India's renewable energy deployment has been a success, with utilities and open access consumers gradually required to source an increasing portion of their energy from renewables. The obligation has risen from an initial 2-5% to nearly 30% today. Simultaneously, India is pursuing nuclear energy to access decarbonized base load power, aiming to triple the existing capacity of 22,480 Megawatt (MW) by 2031-32. The Finance Minister of India, in the recent budget, emphasized that “nuclear energy is expected to form a significant part of the energy mix for Viksit Bharat.” While the nuclear energy sector is state-controlled, foreign investment is permitted in manufacturing equipment and supplying materials for nuclear power plants.

Coal continues to play a significant role in India's energy mix, contributing 59% to the primary energy supply in 2023, even as the country aggressively expands its renewable energy sources. Given the sharp rise in energy demand, India’s reliance on coal is likely to persist for the next few years to support future energy requirements. To meet this demand, the country has established ambitious coal production goals, targeting 1.31 billion tons by FY25, with plans to scale production to 1.5 billion tons by 2030. 

Unlocking the potential of India's decarbonization strategy
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Chapter 2

Unlocking the potential of India's decarbonization strategy

A multi-sector approach blending biofuels, electric mobility, and green technologies is vital for India’s sustainable future.

The transport sector in India contributes 18% of the total GHG emission, with the road transportation segment alone accounting for 87% of the emissions. If the current consumption trend continues, India will need approximately 200 million tons of oil equivalent energy supply annually by 2030 to meet transportation demands. The energy transition in this sector is being pursued through measures such as blending biofuels with petroleum products, promoting electric vehicles (EVs), and electrifying Indian Railways by progressively replacing diesel traction with electric traction.

In addition to India’s renewable energy, significant advancements have been made in bioethanol. The National Policy on Biofuels notified by the Government of India in 2018 mandates oil marketing companies to blend 20% ethanol, sourced from agricultural inputs, into petrol by 2030. To support this, the government determines the price at which ethanol is procured by the oil marketing companies and offers financial incentives to establish ethanol manufacturing capacity in India. Similarly, the Ministry of Power mandates 5% biomass co-firing in Thermal Power Plants (TPPs) from FY 2024-25.

Building on these achievements, our recent report, Energy transition: India’s journey to net zero, suggests that compressed bio-gas (CBG) be blended with compressed natural gas for transportation and piped natural gas for domestic use. While CBG blending obligations will remain voluntary until FY 2025, they may become mandatory thereafter. Similar proposals are being considered for aviation fuel. According to a recent government release, a 1% target for sustainable aviation fuel blending may be introduced for international flights by 2027.

India racing towards net zero
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Chapter 3

India racing towards net zero

India’s commitment to reducing its carbon footprint is evident in its focus on renewable energy, clean tech investments and low-carbon infrastructure.

India is undergoing a transformative shift towards sustainable transportation. The government has implemented a series of measures to promote India electric vehicles, including demand side incentives, supply side incentives for EVs and Advance Chemistry Cell (ACC) batteries, funding of charging stations and lower indirect taxes on the manufacture and sale of vehicles. In addition, various state governments provide financial incentives, reduced or waived road taxes, and subsidies for establishing charging stations. The sector is witnessing strong investment interest, with significant participation from both start-ups (focused on two wheelers) and traditional automotive players. The further adoption of electric vehicles in India will depend on indigenizing battery manufacturing, expanding charging infrastructure, and innovating to offer competitive and appealing products to Indian consumers.

Indian Railways is actively pursuing its ‘Mission 100% Electrification’ plan to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2030.  Key initiatives include adopting energy-efficient technologies such as three-phase electric locomotives with regenerative features, head-on generation technology, LED lighting in buildings and coaches, and using star-rated appliances. The railways also focus on afforestation to further reduce emissions. This plan is expected to save INR14,500 crore (US$1,725 million) annually once complete. Indian Railways' comprehensive approach reflects its commitment to becoming a sustainable, energy-efficient transport backbone for the country.

India is leveraging its abundant sunshine to position green hydrogen as a competitive energy source to decarbonize hard-to-abate sectors. The government has launched the National Green Hydrogen Mission with a total outlay of INR19,744 crore (US$2.4 billion) up to 2029-30. Five states have already introduced independent India green hydrogen policies to accelerate production and attract investments, with others drafting their respective policies.

Simultaneously, the government is promoting offshore wind and battery storage technologies through viability gap funding to support incremental capacity expansion. As these clean technologies mature and achieve financial sustainability, government fiscal support will gradually diminish, paving the way for accelerated private investments.

India’s Renewable energy and bio-fuel growth has been fueled by mandates and market instruments, with minimal reliance on subsidies. The government plans to introduce an Emission Trading System (ETS) through the Carbon Credits Trading Scheme (CCTS), likely following a cap-and-trade model. This mandatory system will be complemented by a voluntary carbon market, allowing non-obligated entities to trade credits. India is also aligning CCTS with international standards to enable participation in global carbon markets.

India Renewable energy and biofuel expansion are driven by mandates and market instruments, with limited reliance on subsidies. The government plans to launch an Emission Trading System (ETS) under the Carbon Credits Trading Scheme (CCTS), likely adopting a cap-and-trade model. This mandatory system will work alongside a voluntary carbon market, enabling non-obligated entities to trade credits. Efforts are underway to align the CCTS with global standards, fostering India's participation in international carbon markets.

The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has mandated Business Responsibility and Sustainability Reporting (BRSR) for the top 1,000 listed companies. This requires disclosure of energy use, water consumption, emissions, waste, and biodiversity metrics, encouraging businesses to embed sustainability into their core strategies.

India will require US$150 to US$200 billion in annual investments to achieve its climate targets. Recognizing the importance of decarbonization, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and other regulators are facilitating capital flow. The RBI has introduced a framework allowing banks to accept green deposits, targeting sectors like renewable energy, clean transportation, and green buildings.

In FY23, the Indian government raised INR16,000 crore (US$2 billion) through sovereign green bonds to finance green infrastructure projects. Additionally, SEBI has established clear guidelines for issuing green bonds, including eligibility criteria, disclosure requirements, and verification standards. Despite these efforts, only 25% of the required investment is currently being met, highlighting the need for additional private capital and government support.

Financing net-zero transition

To reach India net zero by 2070, we will need over US$10 trillion in investments. However, the combination of favorable policies, strong economic drivers, technological advancements, and growing investor interest positions India as a global leader in the energy transition. With this momentum, India might achieve net zero even before 2070, unlocking immense opportunities across the value chain.

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    Summary

    India energy transition is essential for mitigating climate change impacts and the country is progressing towards its 2030 goals, with soaring RE Capacity quintupling in the last decade. Non-fossil fuel generation now comprises 45% of total capacity, with a target of 50% by 2030. India also aims for 500 GW of non-fossil fuel capacity by 2030 and is on track to reduce its emissions intensity by 45%. The transition involves India energy policies supporting green power demand, new technologies and nuclear energy. Financing energy transition in India transition requires substantial investment, with proactive measures from financial regulators. This comprehensive approach may enable in achieving India net zero before the target year.

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