Is more always better?

Ensuring that the vision for Ireland 2040 is achieved in an inclusive manner, that the public at large feel part of,  is a very real challenge.

Ireland’s growth is amongst the fastest in the world, our job market is booming, our population is growing and austerity is finally at an end. Against this backdrop, the Government has published an ambitious but welcome National Development Plan and National Planning Framework and set up a Delivery Board to manage our journey to 2040. What can possibly go wrong?

The ‘to-do’ list

Sadly, there remains much that can go wrong, and, though Ireland’s new prosperity is welcome, it brings a new set of challenges. The ‘to-do’ list is extensive given the constraints of the last decade, and, while Ireland’s growth may be fast, not all the dials are in the green.

• Dublin’s 41st place ranking in the Economist’s Intelligence Unit’s Global Liveability Index reflects the progress still to be made.
• National debt, at around €40,000 per person, is still very high by international standards (and little changed from a decade ago).
• Many places and people have not yet enjoyed the fruits of the ongoing economic recovery and have begun to voice their frustrations and concerns.
• Public services remain under extreme pressure, partly due to the funding constraints of recent years and partly as a result of increased demands created by demographic pressures.
• Brexit and the global trend towards more protectionist policies, shifts in global tax policy, and increased competition from fast-growing emerging nations are just some of the many risks outside Ireland’s control.
  

There is much to commend in the National Development Plan and it has, so far, been broadly embraced.

Like almost all development plans, it starts from a premise that ‘more is better’. More people, more jobs, more wealth, more success. This seems an obvious approach and surely one that everyone would support?

Recent evidence suggests that we need to qualify that statement by saying that if people are left behind, or if their quality of life suffers, then they will not be persuaded that more is indeed better.

The Brexit vote and President Trump’s election are just two examples of when the public, unconvinced of headline growth, reflected more on their personal circumstances and signalled that the current direction was not working for them.

The OECD’s How’s Life surveys reflect what matters to people, and the Irish list is topped by life satisfaction, health, work-life balance and education. If the queues at A&E grow, if commuting times get longer, if parents cannot find their child a local school place, then there will be dissatisfaction with government performance, regardless of how fast the economy is growing. In fact, increased social tensions can emerge that can be extremely hard to reverse, and, recent evidence suggests, are not picked up on until it is much too late.

Ensuring that the vision for Ireland 2040 is achieved in an inclusive manner that the public at large feel part of is therefore a challenge. 

As we head towards Budget 2019 and the NDP Delivery Board start to action their plan, there are a number of points to consider:

The fiscal tightrope: Calls on public money are extensive, but Ireland’s national debt is still high. Given private sector buoyancy this would ideally be a time to ease back on public spending, but given critical infrastructure deficits and the pace of demand that will not be possible. But a tight rein needs to be kept on overall spending. Ireland’s tax base remains narrow, and the debt stock would prevent the next crisis being addressed in the same way as the last.

Consistent capital spending: Capital investment is usually the tap that is turned on and off in response to the economic cycle, and there needs to be a commitment to avoid this happening in future. There will be economic cycles on the road to 2040, and infrastructure investment needs to be considered alongside all other current spending commitments when responding to the national fiscal position. After all, infrastructure underpins the ability to deliver all other public services.

Economic prioritisation: It is critical that infrastructure projects are prioritised in a way that maximises long-term sustainable economic benefits. These projects should be further analysed from an economic perspective to see whether cross-sector projects (for example, transport and health) would have a greater economic effect from a city or regional perspective if delivered together, to ensure a greater ‘holistic city approach’, as opposed to a more sectoral one. Furthermore, greater analysis of wider economic benefits should be undertaken, including agglomeration benefits.

Robust pipeline: A detailed schedule of projects should be prepared and collated between the various departments and agencies which would provide for a “whole-of-Government” integrated, co-ordinated approach, and give the market a degree of certainty about the timing and volume of projects. This will enable it to invest and mobilise based on a robust pipeline, increasing competition and dampening construction inflation fears. The National Roads Authority (NRA) successfully adopted this approach for their PPP Roads Programme in the 2000s.

Improving performance and monitoring success: Given the NDP’s lifespan, how can we continually strive to deliver optimal solutions, and learn from our mistakes and our peers’? Constantly refreshing the delivery plan, and ensuring that it is a ‘live’ document, will ensure our growing population feels the benefit.

Governance: What governance structure should be introduced to manage the NDP’s successful delivery? For example, Australia has a dedicated Minister for Infrastructure together with Infrastructure Australia, a body established to play a key role in prioritising and progressing infrastructure projects. Similarly, Ireland needs a focused and co-ordinated entity to deliver our ambitions.

From plan and vision to delivery

The hard work begins now. Ireland starts from a position of strength, albeit with significant risks, but the journey will be far from smooth. The NDP is not solely the Government’s responsibility – it is all of Ireland’s, and we all need to help, be creative, brave, inspired and determined.

More will be better as long as it applies to all of us.