Oceania Economics

Consumers are fragile, handle with care

The Reserve Bank’s latest financial stability review suggests businesses are holding up pretty well. But appearances can be deceiving.

Why fiscal sustainability remains key to Australia's macroeconomic stability

Legacies of high debts and deficits as a result of the fiscal measures adopted during the pandemic are making it hard for governments, globally, to embark on fiscal consolidation.

Australian National Accounts June 2024: Public spending holds up GDP but holds down the long-term growth prospects

The strength of the public sector became very evident in the June quarter as the private sector slumped.

EY Australian Financial Conditions Index: June 2024

The EY Australian Financial Conditions Index remained restrictive, though conditions continued to ease in the June quarter of 2024.

Quarterly states and territories chart pack: Economic growth forecasts differ across states

All states are feeling the effects of cost-of-living pressures and higher interest rates, but economic growth forecasts differ – reflecting the varied industry structures and specific challenges faced by each. The outlook for economic growth is highly uncertain.

EY Australian Financial Conditions Index: March 2024

The EY Australian Financial Conditions Index eased in the March quarter of 2024; however, conditions remain restrictive.

Australian National Accounts March quarter 2024: Monetary policy will be held tight until the sequins are cleared

The consequence of higher rates is slower growth, and we saw a continuation of this in the March quarter National Accounts today. 

Federal Budget 2024-25: Discipline discarded as business left searching for reform and restraint

Without structural repair and policy reform, the Budget does little to push forward productivity growth.

Quarterly states and territories chart pack: Spotlight on state housing markets

March quarter states and territories chart pack: April 2024

Australian National Accounts December 2023: Are we there yet? No, but almost

As the pandemic and its aftermath continues to wash through the economy, we can’t say we are at the end of the slowdown just yet. But, in the absence of any unexpected shocks, almost.

EY Australian Financial Conditions Index

Introducing the EY Australian Financial Conditions Index - a tool for business to assess the environment for investment

It’s time to tango with the economic forecasters

In order to help businesses make decisions about capital allocation, borrowing, staffing and wages, economists must include probabilities and alternative scenarios around their core predictions. And to get the most out of their economic advisers, business leaders and decision makers need to challenge economists’ assumptions – asking which of their convictions are held strongly, and which are at best a 50:50?

Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook: Fiscal discipline welcome, but more frugality needed

We give the Government some credit for being more inflation aware in this Budget update – but we encourage it to go further in May, especially with Stage 3 tax cuts planned for July 1.

Fiscal policy must belatedly step up to join the inflation fight

Young parents with children in daycare, overflowing supermarket trolleys and lost hopes of being mortgage-free before their toddlers turn into twenty-somethings are rightly miffed when they hear about the ‘bluntness’ of monetary policy.

Australian National Accounts September 2023: In the slow lane

It’s clear the Reserve Bank of Australia’s attempts to steer the economy into the slow lane are working.

Quarterly states and territories chart pack: Broad-based growth across industries and states

The Australian economy experienced solid growth across industries and states in FY23, although at a slower speed than in the previous financial year as a direct response to monetary policy tightening by the Reserve Bank.

The importance of restoring fiscal sustainability for the Australian economy

Government finances around the world have been dealt a blow due to the pandemic.

Australian National Accounts June 2023: Finding a new equilibrium

Rising interest rates and the ongoing adjustment of the economy to the pandemic disruption heavily impacted the economy in the June quarter. Growth was slower as the 2022-23 year closed.

A fractured and climate conscious world is no reason to take our eyes off the trade prize

Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen recently announced he will consider policy options to shield local manufacturers from competitors that have weak or non-existent decarbonisation polices.

Quarterly states and territories chart pack: The manufactured slowdown is working across the country

While State Final Demand increased in most states and territories in the first quarter of the year, the economy is expected to slow further and a period of below-trend growth is ahead.

A dozen rate hikes felt a dozen different ways

The Australian economy rebounded strongly from the impacts of the pandemic and associated lockdowns, supported by household consumption.

Australian National Accounts March 2023: Growth slows, inflation doesn’t (enough)

A manufactured slowdown in the economy is working, with GDP rising just 0.2 per cent this quarter. But rate hikes have yet to make a big enough difference to the inflation dynamics in the economy.

Federal Budget 2023-24: Taxpayers deliver a surplus, now the Government must deliver the goods

A surge in tax collections has provided space for the Government to help out the most vulnerable and move towards a surplus for 2022-23, while forecasting much healthier cash balances over the coming four years.

Quarterly states and territories chart pack: Speed bumps ahead for all states and territories as rate hikes start to bite

The new year has delivered a number of new challenges, and some old ones. But parts of the states and territories’ economies have remained surprisingly resilient.

Australian National Accounts December 2022: Students and tourists boost GDP, as locals face rates reality

Growth has slowed as consumers start to pull back, but the return of overseas students and tourists has propped up Australia’s GDP and helped the tourism industry recover.

Australian National Accounts September 2022: Consumers binge travel and business gets moving, but the day of reckoning beckons

Australian National Accounts September 2022

Major Australian banks’ 2022 full year results: Navigating the path ahead

The major banks delivered a solid full-year result. While average NIM continued to decline year-on-year, rapid increases in the cash rate since May supported loan revenues and margins in the second half for most of the banks, as they actively managed mortgage and deposit pricing. Asset quality remained strong, with loan losses at low levels. Return on equity continued to trend upwards, reflecting earnings improvements.

Why Australian fintechs are sufficiently robust to weather the coming storm

FinTech Australia has continued its successful collaboration with EY Australia to help deliver this important piece of research. The Census remains the only detailed, industry-backed analysis of the Australian fintech industry, offering fine-grain detail about the industry’s increased maturity.

Federal Budget October 2022: Difficult decisions deferred

After four Budgets in two years, we’re accustomed to a steady stream of ’decisions taken but not yet announced.’ Tonight, the Treasurer delivered a Budget full of decisions announced, but not yet taken.

Australian major banks’ half year results 2022: The only certainty is uncertainty

Australian banking half year results 2022