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Why the shadow economy persists and how governments are responding

A new EY study finds the shadow economy is contracting in most countries but remains a problem, especially in lower-income economies.


In brief
  • The shadow economy represents about 11.8% of total global gross domestic product (GDP).
  • The shadow economy declined in 119 countries between 2000 and 2023.
  • We explore five areas of action undertaken by governments to tackle tax noncompliance.

The shadow economy is on the decline in most countries but remains a significant component of the tax gap, generating negative socioeconomic effects, an EY study has found. Governments undertake various actions to bring more business activity into the light, increase tax revenues and facilitate broader economic prosperity and sustainability in their countries.

The report, “Shadow Economy Exposed: Estimates for the World and Policy Paths”, indicates the shadow economy represented 11.8% of total global GDP in 2023. The arithmetic average of country-level estimates was notably higher and amounted to 19.3% of GDP. Many lower-income economies, which are often smaller, tend to be more significantly impacted by unregistered transactions.

Overall, 119 of 131 countries studied experienced reductions in their shadow economies between 2000 and 2023, with an average decline of 6.7% of GDP. The most significant reductions were observed in low-income countries, while high-income countries displayed the least change due in part to a smaller initial scale of unregistered activities and relatively stable socioeconomic conditions.

The shadow economy is also known as the “non-observed” or “unregistered” economy. It involves unreported economic activity from both registered and unregistered entities, where no invoices or fiscal receipts are issued, rendering transactions unreported and taxes unpaid. It is a significant component of the tax gap, which is the difference between the total amount of taxes owed to the government versus what is actually paid. It also distorts competition, reduces the quantity and quality of public goods, acts as a barrier to investment and growth, and degrades economic institutions and social attitudes.

 

The study presents an in-depth examination of the shadow economy, focusing on its multifaceted components as well as relationship with the tax gap and informal employment. It provides crucial insights into the functioning of these components, the detrimental effects they generate, and the strategies applied to mitigate their adverse impacts.

 

The study investigates five areas of actions undertaken by various governments to tackle tax noncompliance:

  1. Increasing taxpayers’ trust toward public administration and the tax system;
  2. Overcoming businesses’ lack of formalization;
  3. Making better use of available technologies to increase detection of non-compliance;
  4. Taking advantage of third-party information; and
  5. Enhancing whole-of-government approaches and international cooperation.

The report identifies crucial drivers of the shadow economy in developing countries (informal businesses, low government effectiveness) and advanced economies (tax rates). It suggests customized policy response based on countries’ individual needs, which can be explored with various methodological approaches. The study underscores the necessity of local context in crafting compliance strategies and combining long-term initiatives like enterprise formalization and enhancing institutional quality with short-term improvements, e.g., in noncompliance detection. Targeted measures informed by noncompliance insights promise greater efficiency, while field experiments can validate some policies before full implementation. Caution and gradual approach should be considered in curbing informal activities, which often serve as a safety net for the poor.

 

Ultimately, the report concludes that only through comprehensive and data-driven policies can governments effectively alleviate the adverse effects of the shadow economy.

Summary

An EY study finds that the shadow economy remains a significant problem despite contracting between 2000-2023 in 119 of 131 countries analyzed. The study provides an in-depth analysis of the shadow economy and related policy areas. 

Shadow economy: the key piece of the tax gap causing long-term harms 

In this report, we estimated the size of the shadow economy in 131 countries and its evolution over 2000–2023 period.

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