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How tax and trade leaders can prepare for global tariff disruption

US tariffs could reshape cross-border trade, driving tax teams to adapt strategies for lasting resilience and opportunity.

The content of this article is intended for informational purposes only and may not reflect the most current developments in regulatory changes. As this is a fast-moving situation, the information provided is correct as of March 6, 2025. Although we update this article regularly, we encourage readers to consult official sources or seek professional advice for the latest updates and guidance. Read more on Tax Alerts.


In brief
  • Fresh US tariffs raise geopolitical risk, pushing tax teams to adopt agile, cross-functional trade planning for resilience.
  • No-regret actions like scenario modeling, nearshoring and tech integration help leaders control costs and meet evolving regulatory demands.
  • Aligning ESG goals with strategic sourcing fosters compliance, reduces exposure and unlocks new growth in a fast-shifting global environment.

New tariffs enacted and pending by the United States (US) – described as national security moves – are causing major trading partners to respond in kind, further scrambling supply chains that have been already in flux for much of the decade.1

The series of actions and reactions and threatened reactions from the impacted countries carries profound implications for importers, exporters and their advisors in finance, tax and supply chain management. Each new announcement and counter-tariff raises the stakes for risk management, highlighting how quickly a shift in policy can impact established models. As companies strive to protect profit margins and ensure regulatory compliance, they need a clear, forward-looking plan that addresses potential duties, retaliations and competitive threats. This article examines the latest tariff developments and proposes practical, no-regret actions to bolster supply chain resilience, help manage indirect tax exposures and maintain a strategic edge in turbulent markets.

Effective 4 February 2025, the US imposed 25% tariffs on products from Canada (with a 10% rate specifically on Canadian energy), 25% on imports from Mexico, and 10% on imports from China. 2

While the tariffs on China took effect (with China responding with its own on goods from US), the  25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico were suspended for one month after Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau pledged to reinforce the country’s border to curtail the cross-border trafficking of fentanyl and undocumented migration; Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, meanwhile, agreed to deploy troops along Mexico’s northern frontier, while the US committed to reducing arms flows into Mexico. US President Donald Trump justified these duties under a national emergency via the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, citing illicit opioids and illegal immigration.

On 4 March 2025, President Trump issued three amendments to the Executive Orders issued in February to impose tariffs on Canadian, Mexican and Chinese goods. Imports from Mexico and Canada will be subject to a 25% tariff, except for certain Canadian energy products such as crude oil and natural gas, which will be tariffed at a reduced rate of 10%. Chinese imports will be subject to a further 10% tariff, applicable on top of the initial 10% introduced in February. These tariffs are imposed on top of any other existing duties.

Possible wider tariff measures have also been indicated and a number of trade investigations have been ordered. On 10 February 2025 President Trump reinstated or expanded steel and aluminum tariffs (likely 25%), including for countries that had previously negotiated exemptions such as, Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, EU, Japan, Mexico, South Korea, Ukraine and UK.3 This was followed on 25 February 2025, by an order for an investigation to determine whether imports of copper, scrap copper and derivative copper products threaten to impair US national security.4

On 13 February 2025, President Trump ordered an assessment of whether trade remedies are necessary for reciprocal trade relations with current trading partners, to be conducted on a country-by-country basis, considering both tariff and non-tariff measures that trading partners impose on the US.5 This was followed on 21 February 2025, by a Presidential Memorandum directing investigations into countries that have implemented Digital Services Taxes (DSTs). The President also directed his Administration to identify policies of other nations that may discriminate against US companies or impose burdens on US digital commerce and recommend actions to counteract such policies.6

 “Tariffs have evolved into a multifaceted geopolitical tool, not just an economic policy,” Evan Giesemann, Senior Manager, at Washington Council Global Trade team Ernst & Young LLP, says.

Trump has further indicated plans to impose tariffs on the European Union (EU), suggesting the bloc has not treated the US “fairly”.

Reframing global trade – from recovery to renewed tensions

A 2024 World Trade Organization (WTO) reportshows increasing trade-restrictive policies worldwide. “Companies should assume retaliation is on the horizon,” George Riddell, Trade Strategy Director at Ernst & Young LLP, says. Beyond one-for-one tariff clashes, indirect disruptions, such as new rules targeting foreign subsidies, could drive up costs and complicate logistics. Even partial decoupling from China or North America gives no guarantee against cost surges rippling through supply chains. Retaliatory steps often target politically sensitive US exports, such as agricultural goods from so-called swing states that tend to decide US elections. “We’re seeing an evolution in how countries retaliate, and they’re more strategic and precise,” Jeroen Scholten, EY Global Trade Leader, Indirect Tax, says. For instance, Canada had readied measures on minerals, plastics and lumber; Mexico announced tariffs “in kind”, raising cross-border supply chain worries. Meanwhile, on 4 February 2025, China enacted 10% duties on certain US goods and imposed 15% tariffs on coal and liquefied natural gas, alongside export controls on 25 rare metal products and on 4 March 2025, China announced further retaliatory tariffs on US products, with an additional 15% tariff on US-origin chicken, wheat, corn and cotton products, and a 10% tariff on sorghum, soybeans, pork, beef, seafood, fruits, vegetables and dairy products. China also launched an anti-monopoly investigation into some US companies on its “unreliable entities” list, echoing prior US-China trade conflicts.

From a tax standpoint, other measures include suspending duty drawback in certain cases. This move will raise exposure for businesses unable to recoup tariffs on re-exported goods. “Tariffs are just one of many changes; they ripple into indirect tax, transfer pricing and broader controversy risks,” Craig Hillier, EY Global International Tax and Transaction Services Leader, says. Businesses may reroute logistics, renegotiate supplier deals or relocate production. “In a world where geopolitical tensions are the norm, scenario planning is essential,” Brad Newman, EY Global Consulting Supply Chain and Operations Leader, says. Robust modeling and agile operations can turn volatility into a competitive edge.

Tariffs may be the initial catalyst, but they reflect a broader realignment in supply chains, digital transformation and compliance. “Companies that adopt a proactive, multidisciplinary approach today are the ones that will thrive.” Riddell says. Organizations that pivot quickly – by diversifying sourcing or deploying real-time analytics – can manage immediate shocks and tap new opportunities.

No-regret actions for businesses

These “no-regret” actions may help your organization prepare for potential trade policy outcomes related to tariffs imposed on goods imported into the US.

 

1. Conduct comprehensive impact assessments


Identifying where and how tariffs affect your enterprise is pivotal. “Scenario modeling ensures businesses can move with agility when the policies take effect,” Lynlee Brown, a partner in Ernst & Young LLP's Global Trade practice, says. Tools can reveal hotspots across products and regions. Involving finance, supply chain and tax leaders early aligns cost, compliance and operational goals. “Scotch whisky and tequila – these goods can only be made in their countries of origin. They have no choice but to deal with tariffs head-on,” Hillier says, illustrating how certain items become immediate targets.

 

2. Diversify supply chains


Broad-based tariffs and rapid policy shifts heighten the need to spread sourcing risk. Moving some production to the US can reduce geopolitical threats but requires careful planning for labor and capital costs. “We run analytics to see what’s imported, plot scenarios and evaluate options,” Hillier says. Many companies adopt a “China Plus One” model – keeping capacity in China for local demand and shifting exports to Southeast Asia or Mexico. “If you leave China, you might face other liabilities,” Scholten says, underscoring the complexities of a major relocation.

 

3. Optimize customs and trade operations


Customs valuation and duty mitigation help to contain tariff-related expenses. It will depend on the import jurisdiction which options are feasible and permittable. For example, in a series of sales transactions resulting in an import into the US, the “First Sale for Export” principle determines duties on an earlier sales transaction, as opposed to the last transaction. “You can import at the first transaction price, instead of the final one, reducing the duty base,” Scholten says. Aligned transfer pricing strategies can further reduce unintended costs, provided that tax, trade and supply chain teams coordinate closely.

 

With duty drawback suspended, Free Trade Zones (FTZ) and bonded warehouses become more critical. “We help companies claw back duties retroactively if tariffs are imposed,” Brown says, emphasizing how informed structuring can yield tangible savings. Ongoing awareness of special trade programs also helps avoid overpaying.

 

4. Enhance cross-functional collaboration


Tariffs can destabilize pricing models, procurement contracts and tax forecasting. “No single team can solve this alone. Trade, tax and supply chain professionals should come together,” Hillier says. Steering committees uniting finance, legal and logistics can respond quickly when duties spike or if trading partners retaliate. “Collaboration across every aspect of the business – tax, trade and operations – is the only way to build true resilience,” Newman says.

 

Consistent data and valuation standards can reduce audit risk. “Businesses need to think holistically about the impact on their operations, taxes and even their carbon footprint,” Newman says. Support at the executive level enables scenario planning, nearshoring initiatives and digital compliance investments.

 

In short, collaboration is no longer optional – it’s a competitive differentiator. By establishing steering committees, aligning tax and trade decisions, and ensuring executive engagement, organizations can transform reactive silos into integrated, forward-looking teams. As Scholten puts it: “A multidisciplinary approach is the key to managing risks and uncovering opportunities in this new era of global trade.”

 

5. Leverage technology and data analytics


Automation and Trade data analytics become indispensable amid sudden tariff escalations and potential EU expansions. “Misclassifying a product’s origin or Harmonized System (HS) code can lead to unnecessary duties,” Scholten says. Pro-active tariff classification management, enabled by technology as well as tools for restricted-party checks prevent customs delays. Predictive modeling that factors in currency fluctuations or political signals offers a proactive stance on possible tariff expansions, allowing leaders to plan alternate suppliers or shipping routes.

 

6. Monitor policy and regulatory changes


Trade partners often counter swiftly to safeguard their interests. “Mexico has already said if the US imposes tariffs, they’ll respond in kind. This tit-for-tat could increase barriers globally,” Hillier says. Engaging with industry groups provides early warning of policy adjustments, letting companies renegotiate contracts or reroute supply lines as needed. Riddell says flexible contract clauses – such as cost-sharing for unexpected duties – can preserve profit margins if new levies appear in Washington or elsewhere.

Long-term strategic planning

No-regret actions address near-term challenges, but ongoing success requires broader moves that extend beyond short-term fixes. Leaders should reconfigure footprints, embrace environmental, social and governance (ESG) mandates and build agility to handle repeated shocks.

  • Restructure global operations

Organizations must decide whether to remain in traditional low-cost hubs or relocate to balance cost and resilience. Nations like Japan or Australia may offer beneficial incentives or extensive Free Trade Agreement networks. “Many firms are monitoring the situation and then developing their plans,” Luke Branson, Partner, Global Trade, at Ernst & Young, says, emphasizing the need for thoughtful planning. “Reshoring isn’t just about labor costs – it’s about showing commitment to the home market,” Brown says, adding that domestic production can reduce tariff exposure and earn regulatory goodwill.

  • Strengthen ESG compliance

ESG issues increasingly affect market access. Poor ESG ratings risk punitive tariffs or outright bans. “We’re seeing some governments tie trade privileges to environmental and social compliance,” Riddell says. Branson points to “modern slavery and social license” as critical factors when firms explore new sourcing locations. Aligning tax strategies with carbon credits or renewable incentives can also turn sustainability into a competitive advantage.

  • Build organizational agility

Tariffs can shift without warning, so governance structures should allow swift, coordinated decisions. Brown says, “trade shocks push companies to rethink where the trade function sits,” leading many to establish cross-functional committees that track geopolitical hotspots. “Flagging shipments for reconciliation” helps rapidly reclassify goods if tariffs rise unexpectedly, according to Riddell. Ultimately, such agility depends on streamlined decision-making so teams can pivot suppliers or reroute freight without bureaucratic slowdowns. “Developing robust processes now – whether for customs valuation or supplier due diligence – positions companies to flourish in even the most unpredictable trade environments,” Branson says.

Over time, these strategic efforts move firms beyond a defensive posture, paving the way for innovation, expansion and digital transformation. Automated compliance tools, real-time analytics and AI-enabled monitoring reduce manual tasks while enhancing cross-functional collaboration. In an era of rising consumer scrutiny and sustained policy uncertainty, businesses that invest in technology and integrated governance gain a reputation for resilience and forward-thinking practices.

  • Moving forward with confidence

An environment in which 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports – and 10% on Chinese goods – could expand, or be joined by EU duties, demands more than reactive measures by businesses. “The global trade landscape is becoming increasingly complex, Scholten says. “It’s not just tariffs – it’s regulatory challenges, green initiatives and retaliatory actions. Businesses need to operate with agility and foresight to thrive in this environment.” By embracing scenario modeling, customs optimization, cross-functional collaboration and ESG considerations, leaders can protect near-term profitability and lay a solid platform for growth.

“Tariffs are just one piece of a much larger puzzle of trade disruption,” Hillier says. “The real opportunity lies in rethinking global operations, tax structures and supply chain networks holistically – so you’re better prepared for whatever comes next.” With a sound mix of strategic planning, compliance and agility, organizations can navigate this new wave of uncertainty, emerging more competitive and ready for future disruptions.


US tariff summary — implications for key trade partners

The United States (US) has announced 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, along with an additional 10% tariff on imports from China. Canadian energy products face a lower 10% rate. These measures, enacted through executive orders citing national emergency powers, are officially tied to the perceived influx of illicit drugs and undocumented immigration.7 Each affected country has indicated that it may respond with retaliatory tariffs on a wide range of US exports. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump has signaled potential future tariffs on the European Union, further intensifying concerns over a major escalation of trade barriers.

This summary outlines possible risks and potential responses for key US trading partners – Canada, Mexico, China, the EU and others – alongside practical steps to help businesses navigate the evolving trade landscape.

Bottom line

The newly announced tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China – and potential extension to the EU and other jurisdictions – mark a significant escalation in US protectionist policies. Affected companies should promptly assess their exposure, develop contingency plans and consider long-term supply chain restructuring to manage risks, maintain compliance and seize new opportunities in an increasingly dynamic global trade environment.


Summary

Rapidly changing US tariff policies are injecting more complexity into cross-border trade activities of multinational businesses. By integrating scenario modeling, nearshoring, and sustainability into broader tax and trade strategies, leaders can turn uncertainty into resilience. A holistic, digital-first approach not only addresses immediate disruptions but also lays the groundwork for sustainable growth. Through cross-functional collaboration and agile decision-making, businesses can balance operational challenges with emerging opportunities in a rapidly shifting market, positioning themselves for lasting success amid ongoing geopolitical flux.


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