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2024 US elections: 6 key issues for cross-border businesses

Photographic portrait of Bridget Neill

4 minute read 07 Oct 2024

Related topics

The 2024 elections could reshape cross-border trade and policy. Explore how post-election policies might impact the global economy.

In brief

The 2024 US elections spotlight pivotal issues for cross-border businesses with potential shifts depending on the election outcomes.
Policy divergences and convergences between the candidates could impact global trade policies, technology regulation and international tax agreements.
Election results, congressional shifts and global tensions will shape US policy impacting cross-border trade and regulation.

Business organizations and governments across the globe are considering how the outcomes of the 2024 US presidential and congressional elections could impact their economies and businesses. The outcomes of the November elections could bring changes to the US policy landscape, impacting foreign policy, cross-border commerce and trade.

There are clear policy differences between the Democratic presidential candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, and the Republican candidate, former President Donald Trump. There also are areas where their views are somewhat aligned. An EY Public Policy Spotlight provides a rundown of six key issues that matter for multinational businesses and explores policy areas where Trump and Harris may diverge or converge.

The policies of the next US president will also be framed by other factors, such as the composition of the US Congress, ongoing geopolitical tensions and the economy.

Six issues — trade and supply chains, technology, tax, regulatory environment, climate and workforce — remain front and center for many businesses as they plan for potential US 2024 election outcomes.

1. Trade and supply chains

The Trump and Biden-Harris administrations have both been skeptical of free trade and emphasized protecting US manufacturing and supply chains. However, their views on specific methods and approaches vary greatly; Harris would likely maintain or increase the Biden administration’s trade priorities, including the focus on climate and worker protections if elected.

2. Technology

Tech, particularly artificial intelligence (AI), remains an important policy issue in Washington. Both administrations have recognized AI’s potential, but their approaches to regulating the associated risks differ. The Biden-Harris administration issued an executive order promoting “safe, secure, and trustworthy” AI development, while Trump pledged to rescind this order, citing free speech concerns.

3. Tax

The balance of power in Congress will influence not only domestic tax policy, but the US approach to ongoing global debates on issues such as digital services taxes and a global minimum corporate tax. Republicans generally oppose signing on to a global minimum tax. Harris has yet to release a comprehensive tax plan, although she likely would support the deal President Joe Biden negotiated multilaterally for a 15% minimum tax on corporations.

Tax policy

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4. Regulatory environment

Recent presidents have increasingly relied on executive powers to make policy, causing pendulum swings in regulation. We expect this trend to continue, and the outcome of the upcoming election, when combined with recent court decisions, could significantly change the regulatory environment.

5. Climate and environment

The Biden-Harris administration has prioritized climate change policies such as rejoining the Paris Agreement and promoting electric vehicles. If Trump is re-elected, many existing policies may be reversed in favor of those that support fossil fuels over renewables.

6. Workforce

Harris and Trump each see themselves as a champion of labor and the working class, but they have different approaches to workforce issues, particularly immigration. The next president may need to use executive authority to address immigration challenges — at the border and in terms of legal and undocumented immigration — as Congress continues to struggle to pass legislation. Expect immigration policy to remain a divisive issue on the campaign trail.

To read more, download the full report.

Congress

The makeup of Congress will be a key driver in how and whether the next president achieves his or her agenda. Control in the House and Senate will influence the response to many critical issues, particularly if they are of the same party as the president. This November, control in both chambers is up for grabs.

If we see a unified government, expect legislation to pass more quickly and overall change to be rapid. Under a divided government, like we have today, the pace of change would more likely be slower.

Conclusion

As we navigate the 2024 election cycle, there are certainly stark differences between the parties and candidates. However, there are also several areas of alignment where the business community may see a continuation of policy regardless of who the next president may be. While the president’s agenda will be a significant factor, which party controls Congress, state governments’ responses and court decisions will also be important in shaping the contours of the public policy landscape for 2025 and beyond. And, of course, the economy and geopolitical landscape will continue to be important drivers of any president’s agenda.

John Hallmark, EY Political and Legislative Leader, Office of Public Policy, Ernst & Young LLP US, and Shauna Steele, EY Director, Public Policy, Ernst & Young LLP US, helped author this report.

Summary

The 2024 US elections could significantly influence cross-border business, with six key issues at stake: trade, technology, tax, regulation, climate and workforce. The candidates’ policies frequently diverge on these matters, and the election’s outcome, along with the US Congress’s composition and global dynamics, will determine the future of international commerce and policy.

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Photographic portrait of Bridget Neill

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