3. Focusing on term structure, liquidity and credit spread
The Canadian market continues to closely follow the IBOR transition developments globally, especially in the US and UK as they are much further along. In those markets, the focus is on developing the required term structure, liquidity surrounding ARRs and related credit spread, as well as minimizing the potential value transfer on transition.
Term structure: Though there has been no final decision on the methodology in the Canadian market as of the time of writing, there are two common methods for developing the term structure: compounded setting in arrears rate and forward-looking term rate. Both methods require a robust governance framework and transparency on its generation, a high enough volume and liquidity to promote reliability, and an ongoing ability to meet these conditions.
Liquidity: To develop the new term ARR, the volume of transactions referencing the enhanced CORRA must be large enough to be a truly liquid market. The scope of products referring to enhanced CORRA should expand to include futures markets, derivatives, clearing house settlements, debt issuances, and other cash products. This will require industry-wide collaboration.
Credit spread: The existing IBORs have an inherent credit component, while the ARRs are nearly risk-free. For smooth transition from IBORs to the ARRs, it’s necessary to develop and apply a credit spread adjustment to the ARR to keep a level of consistency upon transition. In Canada, there is no plan in place at this time to decommission CDOR, resulting in uncertainty as to how much focus the credit spread will receive.
Value transfer: If CDOR is no longer published, depending on which methods are employed for the term rates and credit spreads, there will inevitably be asymmetry between the fair value of the product under the existing and new rates. As a result, there will be a certain amount of value transfer on transition to the new ARR between the counterparties. It will be important for the market to understand what is driving this value transfer, how to price the new instrument to minimize this amount, and what tax implications for any cash payments could arise.