Inflation, Interest Rates, and Transaction Levels: The Evolution of the Real Estate Landscape

In 2023, the real estate sector wrestled with the impact of surging interest rates, resulting in price contractions and caution within the mortgage market.

The market continued in a phase of uncertainty, transaction activities slowed down due to pricing and valuation disparities, and the potential of the non-performing loan (NPL) market's resurgence loomed. However, as we set our sights on 2024, a glimmer of hope emerges, with specific asset classes experiencing price adjustments that may herald a transaction revival. Furthermore, the fund landscape witnessed a notable rise in the launch of debt funds, driven by the anticipation of impending funding needs.

The real estate industry finds itself at a critical juncture in the year 2023. The challenges it faces are multifaceted, and yet, within this complexity opportunities may emerge. In this ever-evolving landscape, two significant factors have taken center stage: soaring inflation rates and the stabilization of high-interest rates. These economic forces have cast a profound shadow over the real estate sector, reflected in a series of consequences. Property prices have decreased, and concerns within the mortgage market are growing. The year 2023 has also witnessed a notable decline in transaction activity, primarily attributed to a misalignment between pricing and valuations. As central banks struggle with the delicate task of restraining inflation while safeguarding financial sector stability, the real estate industry is left to navigate turbulent waters. In a landscape where budgets are stretched thin due to sharp cost increases, property owners are reevaluating conventional lease structures. Intriguingly, regional disparities have emerged, with European owners advocating for a departure from explicit inclusion of inflation indexes in leases, while their US counterparts embrace this approach.

Stabilization of High-Interest Rates and its Impact on the Housing Market.

In 2022, as inflation rates surged globally, central banks initiated a series of interest rate hikes to combat rising prices. Their goal was to lower inflation to more manageable levels. On 20 September 2023, the European Central Bank (ECB) raised its fixed rate by 0.25%, bringing it to 4.5%. The ECB's decision to halt further interest rate increases in October 2023 was a response to a slowdown in inflation.[1] However, industry experts believe that at least in the medium term the interest level will remain higher compared to the ones we have been used to. This rapid increase in interest rates has had a profound impact on households and investors alike. As interest rates climbed, prospective homebuyers and asset managers found themselves in competition for financing from lenders who could secure higher yields from alternative investments. Consequently, the cost of such financing surged, leading to a decrease in property prices. Inflation, the common adversary of all prices, also pushed up rents.

The mortgage market faced its own set of challenges. New debt and variable-rate instruments became increasingly expensive, making home ownership less affordable. Conversely, credit payments on fixed-rate instruments remained constant over time, with payments unaffected by inflation. Furthermore, inflation erodes the future value of money owed. Rising inflation, soaring energy costs, and a relentless cost-of-living crisis have put the focus on affordability for residential real estate investors. Simultaneously, the housing market is under mounting pressure to meet stringent environmental targets, underscoring the need for sustainability.

Concerns Surrounding the Future of Office Markets in Major Cities.

The office market, which has always been a crucial part of the real estate sector, is going through a big change. Economic problems, which used to affect different areas, are now also affecting the office rental market. While catch-up effects from the pandemic era and a robust labor market sustained demand, these driving forces began to wane by the end of the third quarter of 2023.

Germany's seven major real estate markets recorded a take-up volume of 1.8 million square meters in the first three quarters of 2023, a substantial 36% decrease from the same period the previous year. Examining the take-up on a half-yearly basis reveals only marginal improvement over a 12-month period.[2] The office market is diversifying in response to economic challenges. Three categories have emerged: (i) prime space in central locations is becoming increasingly in demand by tenants, (ii) secondary locations with average-quality space and growing vacancies, and (iii) the intermediate area, where companies seek modern, sustainable, and easily accessible office space without premium rents.

Premium rents in prime locations are expected to continue rising due to a scarcity of new developments entering the market by 2028. Newly constructed or repositioned buildings in well-located areas are generating robust leasing activity and consistently improving occupancy rates. The prevailing trend in office spaces leans toward multi-use, flexible offices, and optimal space utilization.

Lack of Transactions in 2023.

One defining feature of the real estate landscape in 2023 has been a notable decrease in transaction activity. The primary contributing factor has been the misalignment between pricing and valuations. Rising development costs have led to lower property valuations, making it increasingly difficult for buyers and sellers to agree on fair pricing. Lenders, particularly banks, have become exceptionally cautious, applying pressure to margins and leading to lower loan-to-value ratios (LTVs). As a result, many players in the market are grappling with a pressing need for liquidity.

In the US, a similar trend is observed. According to projections, there is an anticipated 37% year-over-year decline in investment volume for the year 2023, followed by a notable recovery with a 15% increase expected in 2024.[3] These statistics reveal a dynamic shift in the investment landscape, with certain sectors feeling the impact more significantly than others. Among the sectors facing the most pronounced challenges are office and apartment spaces, which are grappling with substantial adjustments.

Looking ahead, experts in the US also anticipate an uptick in investment activity, particularly as more clarity emerges regarding the Federal Reserve's future course of action. Market participants are closely watching for signals from the Fed, as any adjustments in monetary policy could significantly impact investment decisions and overall market sentiment. Consequently, the evolving landscape of real estate investment in the United States is poised for a period of transformation, driven by shifting economic conditions and regulatory developments.

In the Central and Eastern European (CEE) market, the third quarter of 2023 witnessed 82 transactions, with an average ticket size of EUR 20 million.[4] Six transactions exceeded EUR 90 million in value, encompassing office, retail, and industrial properties across four different countries. Marginal quarter-over-quarter changes in prime yields were observed in the CEE region, with Poland and the Czech Republic decompressing the office prime yield and Hungary doing the same for industrial properties by 0.25 percentage points.

The investment volume for the first nine months of the year exhibited a 46% decrease compared to the same period in 2022. This decline was particularly pronounced in Poland and Romania, followed by the Baltic region. Investors in the region remained vigilant for investment opportunities, but their caution was heightened by inflation levels and persistently high interest rates.

The Rise of Mortgage Funds.

Luxembourg, the leading investment fund hub in Europe, is currently experiencing a remarkable uptick in the establishment of real estate debt funds. This surge is driven by the anticipation of funding requirements within the real estate sector. It is a reflection of how the industry is bracing itself for changing financial landscapes. The real estate finance landscape is evolving, and adaptation is the name of the game for both established and emerging players in this arena.

The Anticipated Transaction Pickup.

Transaction levels are expected to rebound in the second half of 2024 as certain asset classes experience price drops. Two key trends are driving this anticipated resurgence:

(i)              Green Investments: The demand for green investments, particularly in sustainable projects like green buildings, is on the rise. Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) factors have become indispensable criteria for evaluating real estate investments. Investors now prioritize these considerations as standard practice.      

(ii)             Changing Investment Strategies: Challenging times have prompted asset managers to adapt their investment strategies. According to the ALFI REI survey 2022 for funds in Luxembourg, sub-sectors have seen significant shifts in recent years. For instance, the multi-use sub-sector has surged from 33% of funds in 2019 to a substantial 49% in 2022.

In conclusion, the real estate landscape in 2023 has been marked by its fair share of challenges and transformations. While the industry faces headwinds due to inflation, interest rates, and pricing misalignments, the future looks bright.

[1] Monetary policy decisions, European Central Bank, October 2023

[2] Office Market Overview, JLL, Q3 2023

[3] 2023 U.S. Real Estate Market Outlook Midyear Review, CBRE, September 2023

[4] CEE Real Estate Investment Volumes, CBRE, Q3 2023