Intelligent Forecasting and Scenario Modeling

Better forecasts, better plans

Disruption is straining companies’ ability to plan. If ongoing technological disruption and periods of uncertainty have taught companies anything, it’s that they need to be far more connected, integrated and agile than they’ve ever been. They need to be able to use data to quickly and accurately forecast how various external dynamics could impact the business so the company can plan an effective response. However, in most companies, forecasting capabilities aren’t up to the task:

• Heavy use of spreadsheets to collect forecast data drawn from a limited number of internal sources
• Dozens or even hundreds of analysts providing forecast assumptions, often influenced by various biases
• Time-consuming, data-intensive processes to change forecast assumptions for scenario modeling

The EY Intelligent Forecasting and Scenario Modeling offering helps enable companies to quickly create accurate forecasts and develop scenario models so they can adapt and respond to business disruption and develop an informed recovery strategy. The offering empowers companies to:

• Improve forecast accuracy and timeliness
• Rapidly change assumptions
• Remove human bias from the forecast
• Incorporate a wide, diverse range of internal and external data sources for a more holistic view of the business
• Gain visibility into causes of forecast variances
• Make faster, more timely and more informed business decision

A new AI-powered approach to forecasting and planning

The EY Intelligent Forecasting and Scenario Modeling offering is an artificial intelligence (AI) forecasting engine, which leverages machine learning to address a wide range of business planning needs and challenges across an enterprise. Powered by innovative Microsoft technologies, the offering permits organizations in any industry to create highly accurate and largely automated financial, demand and other forecasts in a fraction of the time it takes now. 

It also allows organizations to model a very large number of scenarios reflecting changes in key market and economic indicators so they can more effectively plan for and manage through uncertainty. EY Intelligent Forecasting and Scenario Modeling can either be configured to work with an organization’s existing systems or delivered by EY professionals as a service.

Key assets help enable an intelligent planning process

1. Automate creation of the forecasts through the use of machine learning techniques

• Forecasting engine builds optimal algorithms at scale
• External data improves accuracy
• Objective and unbiased future view
• Auto self-learning over time

2. Create scenario planning and assumption analysis through interactive user interface

• Scenario analysis tied to key drivers with a scenario modeling app
• Potential actions under various scenarios to understand impact
• Machine learning and simulation to accurately measure impact of scenario drivers on business

3. Develop streamlined variance analysis

• Capture dashboard-driven variance and root-cause analysis
• Identify emerging areas of risk
• Decipher between one-time events and sustained changes to the business

Enabled by Microsoft Technology:

• Azure
• Power BI
• Power Apps
• Azure Data Factory
• Azure Data Lake
• Azure ML
• App Service
• SQL DW
• Blob Storage
• API Management