How can Europe attract next-generation inward investment?

The survey results make clear that investors currently prize the relative stability and strength of Europe’s economy. The liquidity of financial markets and availability of capital, and the strength of the domestic market, are investors’ top priorities when selecting countries for investment.

But business’s third area of focus is the policy approach to climate change and sustainability, a top-three priority for the second year running (having been ranked second-last as recently as 2021). That reflects the dual challenge facing businesses today: They must simultaneously navigate the near-term demands of a complex and uncertain operating environment, while making investments that will drive success over the longer term as relatively new considerations such as carbon emissions become ever more important.

The cost of energy and the energy mix appear to be less critical location factors than other considerations. Yet higher energy costs drive higher materials costs and elevated inflation rates — and our broader discussions with investors indicate that energy remains a fundamental concern for many. The results may reflect the steps that companies have taken to diversify and secure energy supply. Moreover, they are confident that European policymakers will have to stay focused on energy security as a major aspect of strategic competitiveness. Otherwise, gas reserves could run out in winter 2023–24, and high costs could severely damage Europe's manufacturing base.

2.  Reinforce support for SMEs, which remain the vulnerable fabric of Europe’s economy

One of the biggest priorities in shaping a competitive business environment fit for the future should be to boost support for SMEs and help them scale more effectively. SMEs employ about 100 million people across Europe, account for more than half of its GDP and play an important role in creating value across all sectors. But far fewer smaller enterprises than larger firms plan to expand in Europe in 2023 (57% compared with 79%), and they are less optimistic about Europe’s prospects in the next three years. A comprehensive view is required of all the elements needed for more European SMEs to make the leap to become potentially world-leading businesses.

3.  Simultaneously strengthen Europe’s capabilities for developing innovative technology and manufacturing in all sectors

The survey identifies R&D as the top category for new investment in Europe over the next three years: 64% of executives expect to increase their European footprint in R&D over the next three years. That gives the continent a unique opportunity to incentivize manufacturing capability that is aligned with emerging technologies. 

It is concerning that far fewer executives have plans to invest in manufacturing than in R&D. Technology development tends to create small numbers of high-value jobs, but to create jobs at scale means attracting investment to build those technologies. Unless manufacturing becomes a bigger priority that if manufacturing does not become a bigger priority, Europe could lose out on the potential benefits of supply chain redesign, will struggle to build the industrial capacity needed for the net-zero transformation, and will find it hard to build strategic autonomy in a world of increasing geopolitical tensions.

To seize the current opportunity, Europe should consider how to encourage investment in manufacturing — especially in the high-value strategic industries that are reshaping the global economy and where policymakers seek to reduce Europe’s external dependencies.

5.  Develop next-generation talent and align skills with the vision of Europe’s future

High employment levels in many European countries mean that businesses face intense competition for talent, especially in growth industries. The EU has designated 2023 the European Year of Skills, with a view to increasing momentum toward its 2030 targets to have at least 60% of adults in training every year and at least 78% in employment. But every year of the coming decade needs an equally sharp focus on skills, across every European state. Europe needs a cohesive approach that aligns business and educators around business’s changing needs.

6.  Build confidence with a modernized tax and regulatory regime

Investors’ top tax priority in 2023 is R&D tax credits, which ranked only fourth in 2022. That may reflect planned investments in R&D — and the effect of the US IRA, which has shown the potential impact of tax credits. More broadly, businesses want tax rules to be as stable as possible.

Clarity and stability are also important for Europe’s regulatory frameworks. Even where policy is still emerging in new fields, such as Artificial Intelligence (AI) and low-carbon technologies, policymakers can promote confidence by giving clear signals about their intentions. The priorities surely must include rapid steps to put Europe at the forefront of the AI revolution, allowing business to reap the benefits of AI while setting clear parameters around its use. Succeed in that and Europe could benefit from a “flight to safety,” just as businesses largely regard Europe’s current regulatory frameworks as an advantage, whether on data protection, intellectual property or tax.