Global growth desynchronizes, but still running at an elevated level. Amid rising tensions over international trade, the broad global expansion that began two years ago has leveled off and become less balanced. But executives remain confident that global growth in the next 12 months will remain solid.
Economic activity continues to accelerate in the United States, driven in large part by recent tax cuts. In contrast, while growth continues in most major economies, it has slowed in many of them, including countries in the euro area, Japan and the United Kingdom.
The US dollar has already appreciated broadly through 2018, and financial conditions facing emerging economies have become somewhat more challenging. Were the Federal Reserve in the US to raise rates faster than is currently expected, many emerging market countries could feel more intense pressures.
Executives report a more favorable view on the global economy than local (85% say improving at a global level versus 67% at local), which highlights the threat to overall growth if more barriers to the current integrated global market are raised.